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Extrem nederbörd i Sverige under 1 till 30 dygn, 1900 - 2011
SMHI, Core Services.
2012 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Denna studie visar att extrem nederbörd generellt sett har ökat från 1900 fram till 1930- och 1940-talet därefter blev det en minskning till 1970-talet för att sedan öka fram till idag. Det är mer extrem nederbörd i dag än på 1930-talet. Speciellt ser vi en ansamling i Götaland under 2000-talet av extrema nederbördstillfällen. Vi noterar att de allra största nederbördstillfällena i Sverige vanligen sker i juli eller augusti men det finns undantag för olika landsdelar och årstider. Man ska dock akta sig för att extrapolera de senaste 40 årens ökning framåt i tiden och tro att ökningen fortsätter. Vad som händer i framtiden säger denna rapport inget om utan den som är intresserad av extrem nederbörd i det framtida klimatet är hänvisad till att studera resultat från klimatmodeller som beräknar det framtida klimatet. Det är framförallt södra Norrlandskusten, Svealand, östra Götaland samt Skåne som drabbats av de allra värsta skyfallen under ett dygn. Västra Götaland, speciellt inre Halland drabbas ofta av stora nederbördsmängder men får vanligtvis inte de allra största mängderna. Även fjällen har fått extrema regn men då främst under längre tid, en vecka upp till 30 dagar.

Abstract [en]

This study shows that, in general, extreme precipitation has increased from 1900 until the 1930s and then reduced until the 1970s, before increasing until the present day. There is more extreme precipitation now than in the 1930s. In particular an accumulation of extreme precipitation in Götaland (the southern part of Sweden) has been seen during the 2000s. It has been noted that the greatest precipitation in Sweden usually occurs in July or August but there are some exceptions for different parts of the country and different seasons. We need to be careful about extrapolating the last 40 years increase into the future in the belief that the increase will continue. This report says nothing about the future, and those interested in extreme precipitation in a future climate should study the results of climate models that calculate future scenarios. Areas affected by the worst downpours during one day are mainly the southern coast of Norrland, Svealand, eastern Götaland and Skåne. Western Götaland, in particular central Halland, is often affected by large precipitation volumes but does not usually receive the highest amounts. The mountains have also had extreme rainfall but usually during a longer period of time – from a week up to 30 days. This report describes extreme precipitation lasting from 1 to 30 days during 112 years, between 1900 and 2011. Only digital data has been used to compile the information in this report. A large proportion of precipitation data before 1961 is unfortunately only available in paper format and could not be used in this study. Prior to 1961, there were only about 60 digital stations, but since 1961 there have been about 700 operational stations. A digitalisation project is being carried out at SMHI to transfer data from paper logs to digital form so that it can be processed by computer programs. This is a large project that will take many years to complete. Sixty stations with a time series of at least 100 years between 1900 and 2011 have been selected to describe how extreme precipitation has varied over 112 years. These stations are fairly evenly distributed throughout the country. Calculating recurrence times required stations with at least 25 years of data during the period 1961 – 2011, which means that over 670 stations have been used. All precipitation measurements are associated with errors due to for example aerodynamic problems and evaporation, which often leads to an underestimation of the precipitation volume. This study has focused on extreme precipitation which often falls in the form of large rain drops. The underestimation is assumed to be less than an average of 5 – 10 %. There has been a gradual improvement in the quality of the precipitation measurements due to the introduction of wind shields around the rain gauges up until 1935 and a switch from zinc containers to seamless aluminium containers (without the risk of leakage) up until the start of the 1960s. After that, precipitation has been measured in the same way until 1996 when around 100 of the 750 stations were changed to a new type of automatic gauge with a different type of wind shield. This report makes no attempt at homogenising the data, and uses the observed values directly. There is however a discussion on different error sources. Variations in extreme precipitation during the 112-year period of study have been described in this report for Sweden as a whole but also for different seasons and for different parts of the country: Northern Norrland, southern Norrland, Svealand and Götaland. The most extreme cases have been analysed using maps with a short descriptive text. Recurrence times of precipitation volumes with different durations are calculated and presented on a map.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI , 2012. , 115 p.
Series
Meteorology, ISSN 0283-7730 ; 143
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2381Local ID: Meteorologi, Klimat, Rapporter, Serie MeteorologiOAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2381DiVA: diva2:947674
Available from: 2012-07-10 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved

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