Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Climate change scenario simulations of wind, sea level, and river discharge in the Baltic Sea and Lake Mälaren region – a dynamical downscaling approach from global to local scales
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5494-2122
SMHI, Professional Services.
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
SMHI, Professional Services.
Show others and affiliations
2006 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A regional climate model (RCM) and oceanographic, hydrological and digital elevation models were applied to study the impact of climate change on surface wind, sea level, river discharge, and flood prone areas in the Baltic Sea region. The RCM was driven by two global models and two emission scenarios. According to the four investigated regional scenario simulations, wind speed in winter is projected to increase between 3 and 19% as an area average over the Baltic Sea. Although extremes of the wind speed will increase about as much as the mean wind speed, sea level extremes will increase more than the mean sea level, especially along the eastern Baltic coasts. In these areas projected storm events and global average sea level rise may cause an increased risk for flooding. However, the Swedish east coast will be less affected because mainly the west wind component in winter would increase and because land uplift would compensate for increased sea levels, at least in the northern parts of the Baltic. One of the aims of the downscaling approach was to investigate the future risk of flooding in the Lake Mälaren region including Stockholm city. In Stockholm the 100-year surge is projected to change between -51 and 53 cm relative to present mean sea level suggesting that in the city the risk of flooding from the Baltic Sea is relatively small because the critical height of the jetty walls will not be exceeded. Lake Mälaren lies just to the west of Stockholm and flows directly into the Baltic Sea to the east. This study addresses also the question of how the water level in Lake Mälaren may be affected by climate change by incorporating the following three contributing components into an analysis: 1) projected changes to hydrological inflows to Lake Mälaren, 2) changes to downstream water levels in the Baltic Sea, and 3) changes in outflow regulation from the lake. The first component is analyzed using hydrological modeling. The second and third components employ the use of a lake discharge model. An important conclusion is that projected changes to hydrological inflows show a stronger impact on lake levels than projected changes in water level for the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, an identified need for increased outflow capacity from the lake for the present climate does not diminish with projections of future climate change. The tools developed in this work provide valuable inputs to planning for both present and future operations of water level in Lake Mälaren. Based on the oceanographic and hydrological scenario simulations, flood prone areas were analysed in detail for two municipalities, namely Ekerö and Stockholm. The GIS analysis of both municipalities indicates a series of affected areas. However, in case of the 100-year flood (0.65 m above the mean lake level) in present climate or even in case of the maximum probable flood (1.48 m above the mean lake level) the potential risks will be relatively low.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI , 2006. , 52 p.
Series
RMK: Report Meteorology and Climatology, ISSN 0347-2116 ; 109
Keyword [en]
Baltic Sea, Lake Mälaren, scenario simulations, regional climate model, dynamical downscaling, GIS mapping and analysis, flood prone areas, planning
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2308Local ID: Meteorologi, Rapporter, Serie RMKOAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2308DiVA: diva2:947601
Available from: 2006-02-05 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(11235 kB)12 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 11235 kBChecksum SHA-512
bdab36dbf280d1789068fbed22ba7c330a96902c6e7777f2141743dbdf197c1d27e900da22be0875ace04a8e15a16de21afd01b8251828462465a1fb77bb0d91
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Meier, MarkusAndréasson, JohanBroman, BarryGraham, PhilKjellström, ErikPersson, Gunn
By organisation
OceanographyProfessional ServicesClimate research - Rossby Centre

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 12 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
v. 2.26.0
|