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Uncertainty assessment of projected ecological quality indicators in future climate
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5494-2122
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7413-7497
Stockholm Resilience Centre/Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde, Germany.
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2012 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Osakerheter i framtidsprojektioner av fysikaliska nyckelparametrar, som vattentemperatur och salthalt, och indikatorer for ekologisk kvalitet i  Ostersjon, som syrehalt, naringsamnen och vattnets genomskinlighet utvarderades. Vi analyserade en ensemble av 38 scenario simuleringar for perioden 1961-2099. Tre aktuella kopplade fysikaliskabiogeokemiska modeller drevs av fyra regionaliserade projektioner av framtida klimat, baserade p a scenario A1B eller A2 for globala utslapp av vaxthusgaser, samt fyra scenarier for tillforsel av naringsamnen till  Ostersjon som tacker en skala fr an en pessimistisk till en optimistisk socioekonomisk utveckling i  Ostersjoregionen. Vi fann betydande skillnader i framtids scenarier for indikatorerna av ekologisk kvalitet p a grund av modellernas olika kanslighet for andringar i temperaturer och narsaltstillforsel. Men trots dessa osakerheter stammer de overgripande resultaten kvalitativt overrens mellan modellerna. Speciellt motverkas e ekterna av reducerad naringstillforsel i samtliga modeller av e ekter orsakade av ett varmare vatten.

Abstract [en]

Uncertainties of projected physical key parameters and ecological quality indicators of the Baltic Sea environment, like water temperature, salinity, oxygen, nutrients and water transparency in future climate are assessed. We analyzed an ensemble of 38 scenario simulations for 1961-2099. Three state-of-the-art coupled physicalbiogeochemical models are forced with four regionalized climate projections assuming either the A1B or A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario and with four nutrient load scenarios covering the entire range from a pessimistic to a optimistic assumption of the future socioeconomic development in the Baltic Sea region. We found considerable discrepancies of projected ecological quality indicators because the sensitivities of the ecosystem response to nutrient load and temperature changes differ among the models. However, despite these uncertainties all three models agree qualitatively well in their overall response. In particular, the impact of warmer water counteracts in all models the impact of nutrient load reductions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI , 2012. , 11 p.
Series
Oceanography, ISSN 0283-7714 ; 112
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2297Local ID: Oceanografi, Rapporter, Serie OceanografiOAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2297DiVA: diva2:947590
Available from: 2012-03-12 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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