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Future projections of ecological patterns in the Baltic Sea
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5494-2122
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7413-7497
2011 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Påverkan av klimatförändringar på Östersjöns biogeokemiska kretslopp i slutet av tjugohundratalet har studerats med en högupplöst 3-D kopplad biogeokemisk-fysisk havsmodell. Fyra regionaliserade klimat scenarier baserade på resultat från två globala klimatmodeller (General Circulation Models) och två utsläpps scenarier för växthusgaser (A2, B2) har under-sökts. Studien fokuseras på kartor som beskriver förändringar i års- och säsongsmedelvärden av indikatorer för ekologisk kvalitet. Vi fann att klimatförändringar kan ha en betydande påverkan på den horisontella fördelningen av ekologiska parametrar. Som till exempel i klimatscenariot med de kraftigaste förändringarna kan siktdjupet (secchi djup) minska med upp till två meter i vissa områden medan en reducerad skiktning kan medföra att siktdjupet ökar i andra områden.

Abstract [en]

The impact of changing climate on Baltic Sea biogeochemical cycles at the end of the 21st century was studied using a three-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model. Four climate change scenarios using regionalized data from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A2, B2) have been investigated. In this study we have focused on maps of annual and seasonal mean changes of ecological quality indicators. We found that the impact of changing climate on the horizontal distribution of ecological parameters might be significant. For instance, in the scenario simulation with the largest changes secchi depth might decrease by up to 2 m in some regions. However, due to reduced stratification also increased secchi depths might occur.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI , 2011. , 28 p.
Series
Oceanography, ISSN 0283-7714 ; 107
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2232Local ID: Oceanografi, Rapporter, Serie OceanografiOAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2232DiVA: diva2:947525
Available from: 2011-02-15 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
  • apa
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