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A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales
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2016 (English)In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 142, no 695, 546-561 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
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Abstract [en]

Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy and water budget and has a substantial impact on local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea-ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea-ice predictability on these time-scales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea-ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea-ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea-ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 142, no 695, 546-561 p.
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Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
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URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2028DOI: 10.1002/qj.2401ISI: 000372951300003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2028DiVA: diva2:925736
Available from: 2016-05-03 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2016-05-03Bibliographically approved

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Keeley, SarahKoenigk, Torben
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Climate research - Rossby Centre
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