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Projected Change-Marine Physics
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1068-746X
2015 (English)Chapter in book (Other academic)
Resource type
Text
Abstract [en]

This chapter assesses recent results of changes in water temperature, salinity, sea ice, storm surges and wind waves during the twenty-first century in scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea. There have been several improvements since the first Baltic Sea assessment of climate change: the number of relevant scenario simulations has increased, ensembles of transient simulations with improved models based upon the scenarios and global models of IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) have been analysed, and changes in biogeochemical cycles are now considered. The scenario simulations project that water temperatures will increase in the future, with the greatest changes in the northern Baltic Sea during summer. In agreement with earlier studies, sea-ice cover is projected to decrease drastically. Salinity is projected to decrease due to increased river run-off, whereas the impact of wind changes on salinity is negligible because the latter is relatively small. However, uncertainty in salinity projections is large owing to considerable bias in the simulated water balance. According to one study, salt transport into the Baltic Sea is unchanged. Sea-level rise has greater potential to increase surge levels in the Baltic Sea than increased wind speed, and changes in wind waves are projected to be small.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. 243-252 p.
Series
SECOND ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE BALTIC SEA BASIN
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2042DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_13ISI: 000367908100017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2042DiVA: diva2:925673
Available from: 2016-05-03 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2016-05-03Bibliographically approved

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Meier, Markus

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