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Projected Change-Atmosphere
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6495-1038
2015 (English)Chapter in book (Other academic)
Resource type
Text
Abstract [en]

This chapter builds on the comprehensive summary of climate change scenarios in the first BACC assessment published in 2008. This chapter first addresses the dynamical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) results to the regional scale, focussing on results from 13 regional climate model (RCM) simulations in the ENSEMBLES project as this European-scale ensemble simulation is also relevant for the Baltic Sea region and many studies on temperature, precipitation, wind speed and snow amounts have been performed. This chapter then reviews statistical downscaling studies that use large-scale atmospheric variables (predictors) to estimate possible future change in several smaller scale fields (predictands), with the greatest emphasis given to hydrological variables (such as precipitation and run-off). For the Baltic Sea basin, the findings of the statistical downscaling studies are generally in line with studies employing dynamical downscaling.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. 217-233 p.
Series
SECOND ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE BALTIC SEA BASIN
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2041DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_11ISI: 000367908100015OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2041DiVA: diva2:925470
Available from: 2016-05-02 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2016-05-02Bibliographically approved

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