Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures
SMHI, Research Department, Air quality.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2757-2864
2015 (English)In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 12, no 1, p. 254-267Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Resource type
Text
Abstract [en]

Over the last two decades a number of heatwaves have brought the need for heatwave early warning systems (HEWS) to the attention of many European governments. The HEWS in Europe are operating under the assumption that there is a high correlation between observed and forecasted temperatures. We investigated the sensitivity of different temperature mortality relationships when using forecast temperatures. We modelled mortality in Stockholm using observed temperatures and made predictions using forecast temperatures from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts to assess the sensitivity. We found that the forecast will alter the expected future risk differently for different temperature mortality relationships. The more complex models seemed more sensitive to inaccurate forecasts. Despite the difference between models, there was a high agreement between models when identifying risk-days. We find that considerations of the accuracy in temperature forecasts should be part of the design of a HEWS. Currently operating HEWS do evaluate their predictive performance; this information should also be part of the evaluation of the epidemiological models that are the foundation in the HEWS. The most accurate description of the relationship between high temperature and mortality might not be the most suitable or practical when incorporated into a HEWS.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 12, no 1, p. 254-267
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2017DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120100254ISI: 000348403300014PubMedID: 25546283OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2017DiVA, id: diva2:917272
Available from: 2016-04-06 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(3086 kB)390 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 3086 kBChecksum SHA-512
a738a999d672e823c61b759b60eedd8ebc464a52043790200738cc58c204ca77dbc5cfd343e9de694b7377c38909262e08850fde4e79301a6b6badce1a695644
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMed

Authority records

Langner, Joakim

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Langner, Joakim
By organisation
Air quality
In the same journal
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 390 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 215 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf