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A statistical modeling approach for the simulation of local paleoclimatic proxy records using general circulation model output
SMHI.
1999 (English)In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 104, no D16, 19071-19083 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A statistical modeling approach is proposed for the simulation of local paleoclimatic proxy records using general circulation model (GCM) output, A method for model-consistent statistical downscaling to local weather conditions is developed which can be used as input for process-based proxy models in order to investigate to what extent climate variability obtained from proxy data can be represented by a GCM, and whether, for example, the response of glaciers to climatic change can be reproduced. Downscaling is based on a multiple linear forward regression model using daily sets of operational weather station data and large-scale predictors at various pressure levels obtained from reanalyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Composition and relative impact of predictors vary significantly for individual. stations within the area of investigation. Owing to a strong dependence on individual synoptic-scale patterns, daily data give the highest performance which can be further increased by developing seasonal-specific relationships. The model is applied to a long integration of a GCM coupled to a mixed layer ocean (ECHAM4/MLO) simulating present-day and preindustrial climate variability. Patterns of variability are realistically simulated compared to observed station data within an area of Norway for the period 1868-1993.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
1999. Vol. 104, no D16, 19071-19083 p.
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Remote sensing
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1533DOI: 10.1029/1999JD900264ISI: 000082235300005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-1533DiVA: diva2:851603
Available from: 2015-09-07 Created: 2015-08-31 Last updated: 2015-09-07Bibliographically approved

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