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A Swedish case study of contemporary and possible future consequences of climate change on lake function
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4971-9441
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5709-9804
2002 (English)In: Aquatic Sciences, ISSN 1015-1621, E-ISSN 1420-9055, Vol. 64, no 2, 171-184 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A physical lake model was employed to obtain a basis of discussing the impact of climate variability and climate change on the ecology of Lake Erken, Sweden. The validity of this approach was tested by running the PROBE-lake model for a 30-year period (STD) with observed meteorological data. The lake is adequately modelled, as seen in the comparison with actual lake observations. The validated lake model was then forced with meteorological data obtained from a regional climate model (RCM) with a horizontal resolution of 44 km for present (CLTR) and 2 x CO(2) (SCEN) climate conditions. The CUR lake simulation compares reasonably with the STD. Applying the SCEN simulation leads to a climate change scenario for the lake. The physical changes include elevated temperatures, shorter periods of ice cover combined with two of ten years being totally ice-free, and changes in the mixing regime. The ecological consequences of the physical simulation results are derived from the historical dataset of Lake Erken. Consequences of a warmer climate could imply increased nutrient cycling and lake productivity. The results suggest that an application of RCMs with a suitable resolution for lakes in combination with physical lake models allows projection of the responses of lakes to a future climate.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2002. Vol. 64, no 2, 171-184 p.
Keyword [en]
regional climate model, lake model, Lake Erken
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1394DOI: 10.1007/s00027-002-8065-xISI: 000176983900007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-1394DiVA: diva2:843740
Available from: 2015-07-31 Created: 2015-07-29 Last updated: 2016-04-11Bibliographically approved

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Omstedt, AndersRummukainen, Markku
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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
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More styles
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  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
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  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
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