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Simulated sea surface temperature and heat fluxes in different climates of the Baltic Sea
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1068-746X
2004 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, Vol. 33, no 4-5, 242-248 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The physical state of the Baltic Sea in possible future climates is approached by numerical model experiments with a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model driven by different global simulations. Scenarios and recent climate simulations are compared to estimate changes. The sea surface is clearly warmer by 2.9degreesC in the ensemble mean. The horizontal pattern of average annual mean warming can largely be explained in terms of ice-cover reduction. The transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the Baltic Sea shows a changed seasonal cycle: a reduced heat loss in fall, increased heat uptake in spring, and reduced heat uptake in summer. The interannual variability of surface temperature is generally increased. This is associated with a smoothed frequency distribution in northern basins. The overall heat budget shows increased solar radiation to the sea surface, which is balanced by changes of the other heat flux components.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2004. Vol. 33, no 4-5, 242-248 p.
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1317DOI: 10.1639/0044-7447(2004)033[0242:SSSTAH]2.0.CO;2ISI: 000222127800011PubMedID: 15264603OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-1317DiVA: diva2:814453
Available from: 2015-05-27 Created: 2015-05-26 Last updated: 2015-05-27Bibliographically approved

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