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Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1068-746X
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
2004 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, Vol. 33, no 4-5, 249-256 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea in present and future climates is investigated. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30-year-long time slice experiments. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, one control run (1961-1990) and two scenario runs (2071-2100) based upon the SIRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were conducted. The future sea-ice volume in the Baltic Sea is reduced by 83% on average. The Bothnian Sea, large areas of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga, and the outer parts of the southwestern archipelago of Finland will become ice-free in the mean. The presented scenarios are used to study the impact of climate change on the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica). Climate change seems to be a major threat to all southern populations. The only fairly good winter sea-ice habitat is found to be confined to the Bay of Bothnia.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2004. Vol. 33, no 4-5, 249-256 p.
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1318DOI: 10.1639/0044-7447(2004)033[0249:SDOBSI]2.0.CO;2ISI: 000222127800012PubMedID: 15264604OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-1318DiVA: diva2:814172
Available from: 2015-05-26 Created: 2015-05-26 Last updated: 2015-05-26Bibliographically approved

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