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Independent Estimations of the Asymptotic Variability in an Ensemble Forecast System
SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8756-0331
2008 (English)In: Monthly Weather Review, ISSN 0027-0644, E-ISSN 1520-0493, Vol. 136, no 11, 4105-4112 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

One desirable property within an ensemble forecast system is to have a one-to-one ratio between the root-mean-square error (rmse) of the ensemble mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble (spread). The ensemble spread and forecast error within the ECMWF ensemble prediction system has been extrapolated beyond 10 forecast days using a simple model for error growth. The behavior of the ensemble spread and the rmse at the time of the deterministic predictability are compared with derived relations of rmse at the infinite forecast length and the characteristic variability of the atmosphere in the limit of deterministic predictability. Utilizing this methodology suggests that the forecast model and the atmosphere do not have the same variability, which raises the question of how to obtain a perfect ensemble.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2008. Vol. 136, no 11, 4105-4112 p.
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Meteorology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-867DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2526.1ISI: 000260861900006OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-867DiVA: diva2:808629
Available from: 2015-04-29 Created: 2015-04-27 Last updated: 2015-04-29Bibliographically approved

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