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Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods - a case study on the Lule River basin
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5701-5922
SMHI, Professional Services.
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
2007 (English)In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, 293-307 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates how using different regional climate model (RCM) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern Europe using an offline hydrological model. Climate change scenarios from an ensemble of seven RCMs, two global climate models (GCMs), two global emissions scenarios and two RCMs of varying resolution were used. A total of 15 climate change simulations were included in studies on the Lule River basin in Northern Sweden. Two different approaches to transfer climate change from the RCMs to hydrological models were tested. A rudimentary estimate of change in laydropower potential on the Lule River due to climate change was also made. The results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. The two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 81, 293-307 p.
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-756DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9215-2ISI: 000247529400017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-756DiVA: diva2:808433
Available from: 2015-04-28 Created: 2015-04-22 Last updated: 2017-06-08Bibliographically approved

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