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Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of North American climate - The Atlantic influence
SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9542-8194
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2006 (English)In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 19, no 23, 6005-6024 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The question of the impact of the Atlantic on North American (NA) seasonal prediction skill and predictability is examined. Basic material is collected from the literature, a review of seasonal forecast procedures in Canada and the United States, and some fresh calculations using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. The general impression is one of low predictability (due to the Atlantic) for seasonal mean surface temperature and precipitation over NA. Predictability may be slightly better in the Caribbean and the (sub) tropical Americas, even for precipitation. The NAO is widely seen as an agent making the Atlantic influence felt in NA. While the NAO is well established in most months, its prediction skill is limited. Year-round evidence for an equatorially displaced version of the NAO (named ED_NAO) carrying a good fraction of the variance is also found. In general the predictability from the Pacific is thought to dominate over that from the Atlantic sector, which explains the minimal number of reported Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs that explore Atlantic-only impacts. Caveats are noted as to the question of the influence of a single predictor in a nonlinear environment with many predictors. Skill of a new one-tier global coupled atmosphere-ocean model system at NCEP is reviewed; limited skill is found in midlatitudes and there is modest predictability to look forward to. There are several signs of enthusiasm in the community about using "trends" (low-frequency variations): (a) seasonal forecast tools include persistence of last 10 years' averaged anomaly (relative to the official 30-yr climatology), (b) hurricane forecasts are based largely on recognizing a global multidecadal mode (which is similar to an Atlantic trend mode in SST), and (c) two recent papers, one empirical and one modeling, giving equal roles to the (North) Pacific and Atlantic in "explaining" variations in drought frequency over NA on a 20 yr or longer time scale during the twentieth century.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2006. Vol. 19, no 23, 6005-6024 p.
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Meteorology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-777DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3942.1ISI: 000242934600005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-777DiVA: diva2:807658
Conference
Climate Variability and Predictability Workshop on Atlantic Predictability, APR, 2004, Reading, ENGLAND
Available from: 2015-04-24 Created: 2015-04-22 Last updated: 2016-05-31Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
  • apa
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