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Estimating uncertainties of projected Baltic Sea salinity in the late 21st century
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1068-746X
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6495-1038
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5701-5922
2006 (English)In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 33, no 15, L15705Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

As the uncertainty of projected precipitation and wind changes in regional climate change scenario simulations over Europe for the late 21st century is large, we applied a multi-model ensemble approach using 16 scenario simulations based upon seven regional models, five global models, and two emission scenarios to gain confidence in projected salinity changes in the Baltic Sea. In the dynamical downscaling approach a regional ocean circulation model and a large-scale hydrological model for the entire Baltic Sea catchment area were used. Despite the uncertainties, mainly caused by global model biases, salinity changes in all projections are either negative or not statistically significant in terms of natural variability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2006. Vol. 33, no 15, L15705
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-790DOI: 10.1029/2006GL026488ISI: 000239596400007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-790DiVA: diva2:807049
Available from: 2015-04-22 Created: 2015-04-22 Last updated: 2016-04-07Bibliographically approved

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Meier, MarkusKjellström, ErikGraham, Phil
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