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Multi-model vs. EPS-based ensemble atmospheric dispersion simulations: A quantitative assessment on the ETEX-1 tracer experiment case
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2010 (English)In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 44, no 29, 3558-3567 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Several techniques have been developed over the last decade for the ensemble treatment of atmospheric dispersion model predictions. Among them two have received most of the attention, the multi-model and the ensemble prediction system (EPS) modeling. The multi-model approach relies on model simulations produced by different atmospheric dispersion models using meteorological data from potentially different weather prediction systems. The EPS-based ensemble is generated by running a single atmospheric dispersion model with the ensemble weather prediction members. In the paper we compare both approaches with the help of statistical indicators, using the simulations performed for the ETEX-1 tracer experiment. Both ensembles are also evaluated against measurement data. Among the most relevant results is that the multi-model median and the mean of EPS-based ensemble produced the best results, hence we consider a combination of multi-model and EPS-based approaches as an interesting suggestion for further research. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 44, no 29, 3558-3567 p.
Keyword [en]
Atmospheric dispersion, Ensemble prediction system, Multi-model ensemble, ETEX
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-556DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.06.003ISI: 000281292700011OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-556DiVA: diva2:806912
Available from: 2015-04-22 Created: 2015-04-20 Last updated: 2016-04-06Bibliographically approved

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