Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Disentangling effects of uncertainties on population projections: climate change impact on an epixylic bryophyte
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
Show others and affiliations
2012 (English)In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8452, E-ISSN 1471-2954, Vol. 279, no 1740, 3098-3105 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Assessment of future ecosystem risks should account for the relevant uncertainty sources. This means accounting for the joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties. We investigate the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future abundance of a bryophyte model species. We also compare the relative importance of uncertainty sources on the population projections. The whole chain global climate model (GCM)-regional climate model-population dynamics model is addressed. The uncertainty depends on both natural-and model-related sources, in particular on GCM uncertainty. Ignoring the uncertainties gives an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. The most likely population development of the bryophyte Buxbaumia viridis towards the end of this century is negative: even with a low-emission scenario, there is more than a 65 per cent risk for the population to be halved. The conclusion of a population decline is valid for all SRES scenarios investigated. Uncertainties are no longer an obstacle, but a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 279, no 1740, 3098-3105 p.
Keyword [en]
climate change, ecological impact, ensemble, hierarchical Bayesian model, plant, population viability
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-449DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2012.0428ISI: 000306105900027PubMedID: 22456878OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-449DiVA: diva2:806337
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2015-04-20Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMed

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Yang, WeiBärring, Lars
By organisation
HydrologyClimate research - Rossby Centre
In the same journal
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences
Climate Research

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

Altmetric score

Total: 18 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
v. 2.26.0
|