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Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
SMHI, Professional Services.
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5701-5922
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1986-8374
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2010 (English)In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 41, no 3-4, 211-229 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

As climate change could have considerable influence on hydrology and corresponding water management, appropriate climate change inputs should be used for assessing future impacts. Although the performance of regional climate models (RCMs) has improved over time, systematic model biases still constrain the direct use of RCM output for hydrological impact studies. To address this, a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed that adjusts precipitation and temperature from RCMs to better reflect observations. Statistical properties, such as daily mean, standard deviation, distribution and frequency of precipitation days, were much improved for control periods compared to direct RCM output. DBS-adjusted precipitation and temperature from two IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESA1B) transient climate projections were used as inputs to the HBV hydrological model for several river basins in Sweden for the period 1961-2100. Hydrological results using DBS were compared to results with the widely-used delta change (DC) approach for impact studies. The general signal of a warmer and wetter climate was obtained using both approaches, but use of DBS identified differences between the two projections that were not seen with DC. The DBS approach is thought to better preserve the future variability produced by the RCM, improving usability for climate change impact studies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 41, no 3-4, 211-229 p.
Keyword [en]
climate change, downscaling, hydrological impacts
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-592DOI: 10.2166/nh.2010.004ISI: 000279499700005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-592DiVA: diva2:806261
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-20 Last updated: 2017-06-08Bibliographically approved

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Yang, WeiAndreasson, JohanGraham, PhilOlsson, JonasRosberg, JörgenWetterhall, Fredrik
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Citation style
  • apa
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