Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Using ensemble climate projections to assess probabilistic hydrological change in the Nordic region
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5331-9064
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5701-5922
SMHI, Professional Services.
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
Show others and affiliations
2011 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 11, no 8, 2295-2306 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Assessing hydrological effects of global climate change at local scales is important for evaluating future hazards to society. However, applying climate model projections to local impact models can be difficult as outcomes can vary considerably between different climate models, and including results from many models is demanding. This study combines multiple climate model outputs with hydrological impact modelling through the use of response surfaces. Response surfaces represent the sensitivity of the impact model to incremental changes in climate variables and show probabilies for reaching a priori determined thresholds. Response surfaces were calculated using the HBV hydrological model for three basins in Sweden. An ensemble of future climate projections was then superimposed onto each response surface, producing a probability estimate for exceeding the threshold being evaluated. Site specific impacts thresholds were used where applicable. Probabilistic trends for future change in hazards or potential can be shown and evaluated. It is particularly useful for visualising the range of probable outcomes from climate models and can easily be updated with new results as they are made available.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 11, no 8, 2295-2306 p.
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-539DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11-2295-2011ISI: 000294438700017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-539DiVA: diva2:805441
Available from: 2015-04-15 Created: 2015-04-15 Last updated: 2017-06-08Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Wetterhall, FredrikGraham, PhilAndreasson, JohanRosberg, JörgenYang, Wei
By organisation
HydrologyClimate research - Rossby CentreProfessional Services
In the same journal
Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

Altmetric score

Total: 38 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
v. 2.26.0
|