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HESS Opinions "On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?"
SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.
2011 (English)In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 15, no 7, 2391-2400 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 15, no 7, 2391-2400 p.
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Meteorology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-540DOI: 10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011ISI: 000293268200023OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-540DiVA: diva2:805433
Available from: 2015-04-15 Created: 2015-04-15 Last updated: 2015-04-15Bibliographically approved

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