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Rainfall nowcasting: predictability of short-term extremes in Sweden
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1986-8374
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
SMHI, Research Department, Meteorology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2716-1571
2014 (English)In: Urban Water Journal, ISSN 1573-062X, Vol. 11, no 7, 605-615 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Our current knowledge of the character of rainfall events in Sweden associated with extreme short-term accumulations and their predictability by forecasting, is very limited. In this study, observations from automatic stations and weather radars in Sweden were analysed to identify and characterise extreme short-term events. Often shorter-duration (1-6 h) extreme events were associated with small-scale structures, dominated by single cells, and longer-duration (12-24 h) events with less variable, larger-scale fields. For lead time 3 h,,20% of the events were forecasted at the correct place with an error of <25% by the operational Swedish nowcasting system. If allowing for a 25 km displacement of the forecasted events, the hit rate increased by 10-15 percentage points. Some predictability was found for lead time 8 h but not for 24 h. The results suggest a potential added gain of increasing the temporal resolution of the Swedish flood forecasting system to sub-daily steps.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 11, no 7, 605-615 p.
Keyword [en]
precipitation, runoff, flood forecasting
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-154DOI: 10.1080/1573062X.2013.847465ISI: 000338103000008OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-154DiVA: diva2:800885
Available from: 2015-04-08 Created: 2015-03-26 Last updated: 2016-05-31Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
  • apa
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Output format
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