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Short-term precipitation extremes in regional climate simulations for Sweden
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1986-8374
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0069-25130000-0003-0069-2513
2014 (English)In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 45, no 3, 479-489 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate change is expected to generate higher short-term precipitation intensities, which may have negative consequences in terms of, for example, increased risk of flooding and sewer overflow. In this study, extreme precipitation for durations between 30 min and 1 day in simulations with the RCA3 regional climate model (RCM) for Sweden are analysed. As compared with daily observations in the period 1961-2010, the simulated extremes are found to be overall realistic with respect to magnitude, spatial homogeneity and temporal variability. In the ensemble of future projections, from 1981 to 2010 the 10-year 30-min precipitation will increase by 6% until 2011-2040, 15% until 2041-2070 and 23% until 2071-2100. The increase decreases with increasing duration and at the daily scale the percentage values are approximately halved. The values are largely consistent with earlier estimates. Assessment of the impacts on the results of the spatial resolution and the specific RCM used indicated possibilities of both smaller and larger future increases.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 45, no 3, 479-489 p.
Keyword [en]
local flooding, rainfall, regional climate model, urban hydrology
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-153DOI: 10.2166/nh.2013.206ISI: 000338913600014OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-153DiVA: diva2:800876
Available from: 2015-04-08 Created: 2015-03-26 Last updated: 2016-05-27Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
  • apa
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Output format
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