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Variability and trends of major stratospheric warmings in simulations under constant and increasing GHG concentrations
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7208-2207
2013 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 40, no 7-8, p. 1733-1747Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Ensemble simulations with a coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere model for the pre-industrial era (1860 AD), late twentieth century (1990 AD) greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, the SRES scenarios B1, A1B, A2, as well as stabilization experiments up to the Twenty-third century with B1 and A1B scenario GHG concentrations at their values at 2100, have been analyzed with regard to the occurrence of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). An automated algorithm using 60A degrees N and 10 hPa zonal wind and the temperature gradient between 60A degrees N and the North Pole is used to identify this phenomenon in the large data set. With 1990 CO2 concentrations (352 ppmv), the frequency of simulated SSWs in February and March is comparable to observation, but they are underestimated during November to January. All simulations show an increase in the number of SSWs from the pre-industrial period to the end of the twenty-first century, indicating that the increase of GHG is also reflected in the number of sudden warmings. However, a high variability partially masks the underlying trend. Multi-century averages during the stabilization periods indicate that the increase of SSWs is linear to the applied radiative forcing. A doubling of SSWs occurs when the GHG concentration reaches the level of the A2 scenario at the end of the twenty-first century (836 ppmv). The increase in SSWs in the projections is caused by a combination of increased wave flux from the troposphere and weaker middle atmospheric zonal winds.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 40, no 7-8, p. 1733-1747
Keywords [en]
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), Climate change, Stratospheric variability
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-383DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1530-xISI: 000317075700011OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-383DiVA, id: diva2:800265
Available from: 2015-04-02 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved

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Schimanke, Semjon

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