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The Stratospheric Polar Vortex and Surface Effects: The Case of the North American 2018/19 Cold Winter
Stockholm Univ, Dept Meterol, MISU, S-11418 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, S-11418 Stockholm, Sweden..
Stockholm Univ, Dept Meterol, MISU, S-11418 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, S-11418 Stockholm, Sweden..
Kyushu Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Fukuoka 8190395, Japan..
Japan Meteorol Agcy, Atmosphere & Ocean Dept, Tokyo 1058431, Japan..
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2025 (English)In: Atmosphere, E-ISSN 2073-4433, Vol. 16, no 4, article id 445Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A severe cold air outbreak hit the US and parts of Canada in January 2019, leaving behind many casualties where at least 21 people died as a consequence. According to Insurance Business America, the event cost the US about 1 billion dollars. In the Midwest, surface temperatures dipped to the lowest on record in decades, reaching -32 degrees C in Chicago, Illinois, and down to -48 degrees C wind chill temperature in Cotton and Dakota, Minnesota, giving rise to broad media attention. A zonal wavenumber 1-3 planetary wave forcing caused a sudden stratospheric warming, with a displacement followed by a split of the polar vortex at the beginning of 2019. The common downward progression of the stratospheric anomalies stalled at the tropopause and, thus, they did not reach tropospheric levels. Instead, the stratospheric trough, developing in a barotropic fashion around 70 degrees W, turned the usually baroclinic structure of the Aleutian high quasi-barotropic. In response, upward propagating waves over the North Pacific were reflected at its lower stratospheric, eastward tilting edge toward North America. Channeled by a dipole structure of positive and negative eddy geopotential height anomalies, the waves converged at the center of the latter and thereby strengthened the circulation anomalies responsible for the severely cold surface temperatures in most of the Midwest and Northeast US.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI , 2025. Vol. 16, no 4, article id 445
Keywords [en]
sudden stratospheric warnings, cold spell, polar vortex, wave reflection, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Meteorology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6753DOI: 10.3390/atmos16040445ISI: 001474690900001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-6753DiVA, id: diva2:1956593
Available from: 2025-05-06 Created: 2025-05-06 Last updated: 2025-05-06Bibliographically approved

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Waheed, Iqbal

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