Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0390-2889
Show others and affiliations
2021 (English)In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 14, no 7, p. 4283-4305Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5-6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7-9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impact of SIC initialization on ocean-atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2-9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal predictability may thus shift from sea ice volume to ocean-driven processes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 14, no 7, p. 4283-4305
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate; Oceanography
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6138DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021ISI: 000672228600001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-6138DiVA, id: diva2:1582702
Available from: 2021-08-03 Created: 2021-08-03 Last updated: 2021-08-03Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(12078 kB)61 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 12078 kBChecksum SHA-512
38c30f6abd4eec3711dbf83eeb9644a20518baa85eab7b4fcee01f825ada92893f342e1d6910fc9377786f0dd2895909021dda3cc255b7e241b5a3e966acd4f9
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records

Karami, PashaKruschke, TimKoenigk, Torben

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Karami, PashaMassonnet, FrancoisKruschke, TimKoenigk, Torben
By organisation
Climate research - Rossby Centre
In the same journal
Geoscientific Model Development
Climate Research

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 61 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 143 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf