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Uncertainty in wind forecasting for wind power networks
SMHI, Research Department.
SMHI, Core Services.
1980 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Accurate wind forecasts will be essential in the utilization of wind energy conversion systems (WECS). In order to assess the reliability at present forecast methods for wind speed forecast data from the USA and Sweden have been verified. Data represent different methods, numerical/statistical and subjective, different locations, seasons and heights. However, the data sets are too small to allow any definite conclusions. The results point to that none of the tested forecast methods meet the requirements on forecast error put forward by utilities. The best forecasts were obtained by subjective methods based on numerical prediction for projection times less than +18h. Beyond that time objective, numerical/statistical methods showed to be better. National weather services are recommended to improve forecast methods for shortrange forecasts, 0-12 hours ahead. To obtain sufficient forecast accuracy future WECS sites must also supply relevant observations of low level atmospheric structure.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI , 1980. , p. 61
Series
RMK: Report Meteorology and Climatology, ISSN 0347-2116 ; 25
Keywords [sv]
vind, prognoser, vindkraft
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Meteorology; Climate
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2726Local ID: Meteorologi, Rapporter, Serie RMKOAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2726DiVA, id: diva2:948022
Available from: 1980-09-18 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2020-02-19Bibliographically approved

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Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf