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A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales
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2016 (engelsk)Inngår i: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 142, nr 695, s. 546-561Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
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Abstract [en]

Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy and water budget and has a substantial impact on local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea-ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea-ice predictability on these time-scales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea-ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea-ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea-ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2016. Vol. 142, nr 695, s. 546-561
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Klimat
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2028DOI: 10.1002/qj.2401ISI: 000372951300003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2028DiVA, id: diva2:925736
Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-05-03 Laget: 2016-05-02 Sist oppdatert: 2017-11-30bibliografisk kontrollert

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Keeley, SarahKoenigk, Torben

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