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Estimating uncertainties of projected Baltic Sea salinity in the late 21st century
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-6495-1038
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-5701-5922
2006 (engelsk)Inngår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 33, nr 15, artikkel-id L15705Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

As the uncertainty of projected precipitation and wind changes in regional climate change scenario simulations over Europe for the late 21st century is large, we applied a multi-model ensemble approach using 16 scenario simulations based upon seven regional models, five global models, and two emission scenarios to gain confidence in projected salinity changes in the Baltic Sea. In the dynamical downscaling approach a regional ocean circulation model and a large-scale hydrological model for the entire Baltic Sea catchment area were used. Despite the uncertainties, mainly caused by global model biases, salinity changes in all projections are either negative or not statistically significant in terms of natural variability.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2006. Vol. 33, nr 15, artikkel-id L15705
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Klimat
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-790DOI: 10.1029/2006GL026488ISI: 000239596400007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-790DiVA, id: diva2:807049
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-04-22 Laget: 2015-04-22 Sist oppdatert: 2020-05-26bibliografisk kontrollert

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Meier, MarkusKjellström, ErikGraham, Phil

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