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Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-7853-932X
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-2757-2864
Vise andre og tillknytning
2013 (engelsk)Inngår i: European Respiratory Journal, ISSN 0903-1936, E-ISSN 1399-3003, Vol. 41, nr 2, s. 285-294Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change. Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with the model of atmospheric transport and chemistry (MATCH)-RCA3 (50 x 50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. We applied a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity. Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increases in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal, with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected. The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2013. Vol. 41, nr 2, s. 285-294
Emneord [en]
Environment, hospitalisation, ozone
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Miljö
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-390DOI: 10.1183/09031936.00210411ISI: 000314624200008PubMedID: 22743679OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-390DiVA, id: diva2:800248
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-04-02 Laget: 2015-03-31 Sist oppdatert: 2017-12-04bibliografisk kontrollert

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Andersson, CamillaLangner, Joakim

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