Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Deterministic evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Sweden
SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-1986-8374
2007 (Engelska)Ingår i: Nordic Hydrology, ISSN 0029-1277, E-ISSN 1996-9694, Vol. 38, nr 4-5, s. 441-450Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

A system for ensemble streamflow prediction, ESP, has been operational at SMHI since July 2004, based on 50 meteorological ensemble forecasts from ECMWF. Hydrological ensemble forecasts are produced daily for 51 basins in Sweden. All ensemble members, as well as statistics (minimum, 25% quartile, median, 75% quartile and maximum), are stored in a database. This paper presents an evaluation of the first 18 months of ESP median forecasts from this system, and in particular their performance in comparison with today's categorical forecast. The evaluation was made in terms of three statistical measures: bias B, root mean square error RMSE and absolute peak flow error PE. For ESP forecasts the bias ranged between -20% and 80% with a systematic overestimation for Sweden as a whole. A comparison between bias in input precipitation and ESP output, respectively, revealed only a weak relationship, but streamflow overestimation is likely related mainly to model properties. The results from the streamflow forecast comparison showed that the ESP median in deterministic terms performs overall as well as the presently used categorical forecast. Further, ESP has the advantage of providing at least a qualitative measure of the uncertainty in the forecasts, with probability forecasts being the ultimate goal.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2007. Vol. 38, nr 4-5, s. 441-450
Nyckelord [en]
ensemble, HBV model, prediction, streamflow, Sweden
Nationell ämneskategori
Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser
Forskningsämne
Hydrologi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-770DOI: 10.2166/nh.2007.022ISI: 000251515500010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-770DiVA, id: diva2:808148
Konferens
24th Nordic Hydrological Conference, AUG 06-09, 2006, Vingsted, DENMARK
Tillgänglig från: 2015-04-27 Skapad: 2015-04-22 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-01-11Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Fulltext saknas i DiVA

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltext

Personposter BETA

Johnell, AnnaLindström, GöranOlsson, Jonas

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Johnell, AnnaLindström, GöranOlsson, Jonas
Av organisationen
AffärsverksamhetHydrologi
I samma tidskrift
Nordic Hydrology
Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
urn-nbn
Totalt: 209 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
v. 2.35.8
|