Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Variability and trends of major stratospheric warmings in simulations under constant and increasing GHG concentrations
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-7208-2207
2013 (Engelska)Ingår i: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 40, nr 7-8, s. 1733-1747Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Ensemble simulations with a coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere model for the pre-industrial era (1860 AD), late twentieth century (1990 AD) greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, the SRES scenarios B1, A1B, A2, as well as stabilization experiments up to the Twenty-third century with B1 and A1B scenario GHG concentrations at their values at 2100, have been analyzed with regard to the occurrence of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). An automated algorithm using 60A degrees N and 10 hPa zonal wind and the temperature gradient between 60A degrees N and the North Pole is used to identify this phenomenon in the large data set. With 1990 CO2 concentrations (352 ppmv), the frequency of simulated SSWs in February and March is comparable to observation, but they are underestimated during November to January. All simulations show an increase in the number of SSWs from the pre-industrial period to the end of the twenty-first century, indicating that the increase of GHG is also reflected in the number of sudden warmings. However, a high variability partially masks the underlying trend. Multi-century averages during the stabilization periods indicate that the increase of SSWs is linear to the applied radiative forcing. A doubling of SSWs occurs when the GHG concentration reaches the level of the A2 scenario at the end of the twenty-first century (836 ppmv). The increase in SSWs in the projections is caused by a combination of increased wave flux from the troposphere and weaker middle atmospheric zonal winds.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2013. Vol. 40, nr 7-8, s. 1733-1747
Nyckelord [en]
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), Climate change, Stratospheric variability
Nationell ämneskategori
Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser
Forskningsämne
Oceanografi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-383DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1530-xISI: 000317075700011OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-383DiVA, id: diva2:800265
Tillgänglig från: 2015-04-02 Skapad: 2015-03-31 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-01-11Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Fulltext saknas i DiVA

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltext

Personposter BETA

Schimanke, Semjon

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Schimanke, Semjon
Av organisationen
Oceanografi
I samma tidskrift
Climate Dynamics
Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
urn-nbn
Totalt: 9 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
v. 2.35.4
|