Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-5665-3866
2019 (Engelska)Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Precipitation is one of the most important atmospheric variables to assess, particularly in the context of climate change. This study evaluates future changes in precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Changes are assessed for two future climate periods namely (2046-2065) and (2081-2100), relative to a recent reference climate (1986-2005). Here we introduce the concept of precipitation episodes (PEs) and estimate their statistical properties for the present climate and, their changes for future climate scenarios. PEs are defined by considering a full range of durations as well as intensities. This constitutes a novel approach to estimate changes with relevance, for example, for water resources applications. The climate simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. These are compared with an ensemble of other similar simulations from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment initiative. This was done to evaluate the performance of the WRF model and also to estimate uncertainty of the derived future projections. Since models may present systematic errors, results from all simulations were previously bias corrected relative to observations using the same quantile mapping method. Under climate change, a great part of the region is expected to experience reduced annual precipitation of approximately 20-40% and reaching 80% in summer by the end of the XXI century. For the PEs, a large reduction in the average number of days and duration of all types of PEs is expected across all seasons and regions. The average intensity of episodes is projected to increase in winter and spring and decrease in summer. These results imply that climate change will likely influence precipitation and precipitation extremes in the 21st century, mostly in southern areas. These, together with projected warming may amplify desertification already taking place in the southern regions of the IP and cause stresses to water resources.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2019.
Nationell ämneskategori
Klimatforskning
Forskningsämne
Klimat
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5440DOI: 10.1002/joc.6269ISI: 000484748900001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-5440DiVA, id: diva2:1360861
Tillgänglig från: 2019-10-14 Skapad: 2019-10-14 Senast uppdaterad: 2020-05-04Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Fulltext saknas i DiVA

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltext

Personposter BETA

Carvalho, Ana

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Carvalho, AnaRocha, Alfredo
Av organisationen
Luftmiljö
I samma tidskrift
International Journal of Climatology
Klimatforskning

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
urn-nbn
Totalt: 9 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf