Endre søk
RefereraExporteraLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annet format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annet språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Impact of a stochastic parametrization of cumulus convection, using cellular automata, in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-8756-0331
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-0524-6440
2016 (engelsk)Inngår i: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 142, nr 695, s. 1150-1159Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Resurstyp
Text
Abstract [en]

A stochastic parametrization for deep convection, based on cellular automata, has been evaluated in the high-resolution (2.5 km) ensemble prediction system Hirlam Aladin Regional Mesoscale Operational NWP Ensemble Prediction System (HarmonEPS). We studied whether such a stochastic physical parametrization, whilst implemented in a deterministic forecast model, can have an impact on the performance of the uncertainty estimates given by an ensemble prediction system. Various feedback mechanisms in the parametrization were studied with respect to ensemble spread and skill, in both subgrid and resolved precipitation fields. It was found that the stochastic parametrization improves the model skill in general, by reducing a positive bias in precipitation. This reduction in bias, however, led to a reduction in ensemble spread of precipitation. Overall, scores that measure the accuracy and reliability of probabilistic predictions indicate that the net impact (improved skill, degraded spread) of the ensemble prediction system is improved for 6 h accumulated precipitation with the stochastic parametrization and is rather neutral for other quantities examined.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2016. Vol. 142, nr 695, s. 1150-1159
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Meteorologi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2029DOI: 10.1002/qj.2720ISI: 000372951300051OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2029DiVA, id: diva2:925734
Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-05-03 Laget: 2016-05-02 Sist oppdatert: 2017-11-30bibliografisk kontrollert

Open Access i DiVA

Fulltekst mangler i DiVA

Andre lenker

Forlagets fulltekst

Personposter BETA

Bengtsson, LisaKörnich, Heiner

Søk i DiVA

Av forfatter/redaktør
Bengtsson, LisaKörnich, Heiner
Av organisasjonen
I samme tidsskrift
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Søk utenfor DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric

doi
urn-nbn
Totalt: 188 treff
RefereraExporteraLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annet format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annet språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
v. 2.35.9
|