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Rainfall nowcasting: predictability of short-term extremes in Sweden
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-1986-8374
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Meteorologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-2716-1571
2015 (engelsk)Inngår i: Urban Water Journal, ISSN 1573-062X, Vol. 12, nr 1, s. 3-13Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
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Text
Abstract [en]

Our current knowledge of the character of rainfall events in Sweden associated with extreme short-term accumulations and their predictability by forecasting, is very limited. In this study, observations from automatic stations and weather radars in Sweden were analysed to identify and characterise extreme short-term events. Often shorter-duration (1-6 h) extreme events were associated with small-scale structures, dominated by single cells, and longer-duration (12-24 h) events with less variable, larger-scale fields. For lead time 3 h, similar to 20% of the events were forecasted at the correct place with an error of <25% by the operational Swedish nowcasting system. If allowing for a 25 km displacement of the forecasted events, the hit rate increased by 10-15 percentage points. Some predictability was found for lead time 8 h but not for 24 h. The results suggest a potential added gain of increasing the temporal resolution of the Swedish flood forecasting system to sub-daily steps.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2015. Vol. 12, nr 1, s. 3-13
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Hydrologi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2019DOI: 10.1080/1573062X.2015.987428ISI: 000346568900003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-2019DiVA, id: diva2:908691
Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-03-03 Laget: 2016-03-03 Sist oppdatert: 2018-01-10bibliografisk kontrollert

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