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A MODEL FOR PROBABILITY NOWCASTS OF ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION USING RADAR
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Atmosfärisk fjärranalys.
SMHI.
1991 (engelsk)Inngår i: Journal of applied meteorology (1988), ISSN 0894-8763, E-ISSN 1520-0450, Vol. 30, nr 1, s. 135-141Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
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Abstract [en]

A new model for making probability forecasts of accumulated spot precipitation from weather radar data is presented. The model selects a source region upwind of the forecast spot. All pixels (horizontal size 2 x 2 km2) within the source region are considered, having the same probability of hitting the forecast spot. A pixel hitting the forecast spot is supposed to precipitate there a short time (about 10 min.). A drawing is performed, and a frequency distribution of accumulated precipitation during the first time step of the forecast is obtained. A second drawing gives the frequency distribution of accumulated precipitation during the first to second time step, a third one during the first to third, and so on until the end of the forecast period is reached. A number of forecasts for 1-h accumulated precipitation, with lead times of 0, 1, and 2 h, have been performed and verified. The forecasts for 0-h lead time got the highest Brier skill scores, +50% to 60% relative to climatological forecasts for accumulated precipitation below 1 mm.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
1991. Vol. 30, nr 1, s. 135-141
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Fjärranalys
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1716DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1991)030<0135:AMFPNO>2.0.CO;2ISI: A1991EZ14600009OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-1716DiVA, id: diva2:899550
Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-02-02 Laget: 2016-02-02 Sist oppdatert: 2017-11-30bibliografisk kontrollert

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