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Net precipitation over the Baltic Sea during present and future climate conditions
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-7656-1881
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-4971-9441
SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-3657-1588
2002 (engelsk)Inngår i: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 22, nr 1, s. 27-39Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

By using a process-oriented ocean model forced with data from a gridded synoptic database, net precipitation values (precipitation minus evaporation) over the Baltic Sea are obtained. For a range of realistic meteorological forcing the average annual value obtained from an 18 yr (1981-1998) simulation ranges between 1100 and 2500 m(3) s(-1). The monthly variations are significant with the highest values occurring in early summer and even negative values in late autumn. Ice is an important factor, and the net precipitation is close to zero in the southern basins with no ice. Calculated net precipitation for a 98 yr period (1901-1998) using river runoff and maximum ice extent indicates that the investigated 18 yr period was wetter than the almost 100 yr climate mean. A realistic climate estimate of net precipitation during the 20th century is estimated to be 1500 +/-1000 m(3) s(-1). The evaluation of 2 present day regional climate simulations indicated high precipitation, low evaporation, and thus excessive net precipitation compared to the climate estimate from this investigation. When simulating the effect of increased greenhouse gases, the change in net precipitation was positive but small due to the compensating effects of increased precipitation and increased evaporation associated with increased temperature and reduced ice.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2002. Vol. 22, nr 1, s. 27-39
Emneord [en]
water cycle, Baltic Sea, precipitation, evaporation, climate
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Klimat
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1377DOI: 10.3354/cr022027ISI: 000178207000003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-1377DiVA, id: diva2:844434
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-08-06 Laget: 2015-07-29 Sist oppdatert: 2018-05-22bibliografisk kontrollert

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