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Carvalho, Ana
Publications (4 of 4) Show all publications
Pereira, S. C., Marta-Almeida, M., Carvalho, A. & Rocha, A. (2019). Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula
2019 (English)In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Precipitation is one of the most important atmospheric variables to assess, particularly in the context of climate change. This study evaluates future changes in precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Changes are assessed for two future climate periods namely (2046-2065) and (2081-2100), relative to a recent reference climate (1986-2005). Here we introduce the concept of precipitation episodes (PEs) and estimate their statistical properties for the present climate and, their changes for future climate scenarios. PEs are defined by considering a full range of durations as well as intensities. This constitutes a novel approach to estimate changes with relevance, for example, for water resources applications. The climate simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. These are compared with an ensemble of other similar simulations from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment initiative. This was done to evaluate the performance of the WRF model and also to estimate uncertainty of the derived future projections. Since models may present systematic errors, results from all simulations were previously bias corrected relative to observations using the same quantile mapping method. Under climate change, a great part of the region is expected to experience reduced annual precipitation of approximately 20-40% and reaching 80% in summer by the end of the XXI century. For the PEs, a large reduction in the average number of days and duration of all types of PEs is expected across all seasons and regions. The average intensity of episodes is projected to increase in winter and spring and decrease in summer. These results imply that climate change will likely influence precipitation and precipitation extremes in the 21st century, mostly in southern areas. These, together with projected warming may amplify desertification already taking place in the southern regions of the IP and cause stresses to water resources.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5440 (URN)10.1002/joc.6269 (DOI)000484748900001 ()
Available from: 2019-10-14 Created: 2019-10-14 Last updated: 2019-10-14Bibliographically approved
Teixeira, J. C., Fallmann, J., Carvalho, A. & Rocha, A. (2019). Surface to boundary layer coupling in the urban area of Lisbon comparing different urban canopy models in WRF. Urban Climate, 28, Article ID UNSP 100454.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Surface to boundary layer coupling in the urban area of Lisbon comparing different urban canopy models in WRF
2019 (English)In: Urban Climate, ISSN 2212-0955, E-ISSN 2212-0955, Vol. 28, article id UNSP 100454Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5355 (URN)10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100454 (DOI)000477730100018 ()
Available from: 2019-08-14 Created: 2019-08-14 Last updated: 2019-08-14Bibliographically approved
Amorim, J. H., Asker, C., Belusic, D., Carvalho, A., Engardt, M., Gidhagen, L., . . . Baklanov, A. (2018). Integrated Urban Services for European cities: the Stockholm case. WMO Bulletin, 67(2), 33-40
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integrated Urban Services for European cities: the Stockholm case
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2018 (English)In: WMO Bulletin, ISSN 0042-9767, Vol. 67, no 2, p. 33-40Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
The World Meteorological Organization, 2018
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5183 (URN)
Available from: 2019-04-15 Created: 2019-04-15 Last updated: 2019-04-15Bibliographically approved
Cardoso Pereira, S., Marta-Almeida, M. & Carvalho, A. (2017). Heat wave and cold spell changes in Iberia for a future climate scenario. International Journal of Climatology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Heat wave and cold spell changes in Iberia for a future climate scenario
2017 (English)In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

: This study investigates the impacts of climate change scenario on summer heat waves’ (HWs) and winter cold spells’ (CSs) characteristics for 12 locations over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). These characteristics are duration, recovery factor and intensity. Two future time slices of the chosen scenario are studied, namely, the periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 which are compared with a reference climate for the recent-past (1986–2005). The RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario is considered. The minimum and maximum daily temperature were obtained for these periods through regional model simulations using the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model forced with the MPI-ESM-LR model. The model was validated against EOBS and SPAIN02 datasets. The model shows 90th/10th percentile temperature (i.e. thresholds to identify HW/CS) biases. Therefore, HW/CS numbers and properties were evaluated using the model’s respective thresholds. HW/CS numbers and characteristics were also compared between the model and EOBS derived data. Probability density functions (PDFs) of the duration, recovery factor and intensity show significant changes in the mean and variance for the summer HWs. Differences, between future and recent-past climate in the extremes are evaluated by the 95th percentile which show an increase in the duration and intensity of the HWs for the future time slices. Very few CSs were detectable in the mid-term future (2046–2065) and none in the long-term future (2080–2100), except for Barcelona. For most locations, the CS for the future are of smaller duration and intensity. The PDF of the recovery factor suggests smaller absolute differences between the minimum and maximum temperature during winter which is also confirmed by the percentile analysis. The increase in the duration and intensity of HWs is greater in the long-term future than in the mid-term future, pointing for a warmer IP with more and longer HWs towards the end of the XXI century

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Royal Meteorological Society, 2017
Keywords
climate change; heat waves; cold spells; Iberian Peninsula; regional climate modelling; WRF model
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4421 (URN)10.1002/joc.5158 (DOI)
Available from: 2017-11-16 Created: 2017-11-16 Last updated: 2017-11-16Bibliographically approved
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