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Publications (10 of 11) Show all publications
Polkova, I., Swingedouw, D., Hermanson, L., Koehl, A., Stammer, D., Smith, D., . . . Matear, R. J. (2023). Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE, 5, Article ID 1273770.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
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2023 (English)In: FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE, ISSN 2624-9553, Vol. 5, article id 1273770Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Climate; Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6550 (URN)10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770 (DOI)001126041900001 ()
Available from: 2024-01-09 Created: 2024-01-09 Last updated: 2024-01-09Bibliographically approved
Sicard, M., de Boer, A. M., Coxall, H. K., Koenigk, T., Karami, P., Jakobsson, M. & O'Regan, M. (2023). Similarities and Differences in Arctic Sea-Ice Loss During the Solar-Forced Last Interglacial Warming (127 Kyr BP) and CO2-Forced Future Warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(24), Article ID e2023GL104782.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Similarities and Differences in Arctic Sea-Ice Loss During the Solar-Forced Last Interglacial Warming (127 Kyr BP) and CO2-Forced Future Warming
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2023 (English)In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 50, no 24, article id e2023GL104782Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Science
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6544 (URN)10.1029/2023GL104782 (DOI)001123913100001 ()
Available from: 2024-01-09 Created: 2024-01-09 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Malinauskaite, L., Cook, D., Davidsdottir, B., Karami, P., Koenigk, T., Kruschke, T., . . . Rasmussen, M. (2022). Connecting the dots: An interdisciplinary perspective on climate change effects on whales and whale watching in Skjalfandi Bay, Iceland. Ocean and Coastal Management, 226, Article ID 106274.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Connecting the dots: An interdisciplinary perspective on climate change effects on whales and whale watching in Skjalfandi Bay, Iceland
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2022 (English)In: Ocean and Coastal Management, ISSN 0964-5691, E-ISSN 1873-524X, Vol. 226, article id 106274Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Science
Research subject
Climate; Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6328 (URN)10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106274 (DOI)000840266200004 ()
Available from: 2022-09-06 Created: 2022-09-06 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Doescher, R., Acosta, M., Alessandri, A., Anthoni, P., Arsouze, T., Bergman, T., . . . Zhang, Q. (2022). The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. Geoscientific Model Development, 15(7), 2973-3020
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6
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2022 (English)In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 15, no 7, p. 2973-3020Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Science
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6270 (URN)10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022 (DOI)000792384900001 ()
Available from: 2022-05-24 Created: 2022-05-24 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Hermanson, L., Smith, D., Seabrook, M., Bilbao, R., Doblas-Reyes, F., Tourigny, E., . . . Kumar, A. (2022). WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), 103(4), E1117-E1129
Open this publication in new window or tab >>WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25
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2022 (English)In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 103, no 4, p. E1117-E1129Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6322 (URN)10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0311.1 (DOI)000829050400009 ()
Available from: 2022-08-03 Created: 2022-08-03 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Tian, T., Yang, S., Karami, P., Massonnet, F., Kruschke, T. & Koenigk, T. (2021). Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(7), 4283-4305
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3
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2021 (English)In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 14, no 7, p. 4283-4305Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5-6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7-9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impact of SIC initialization on ocean-atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2-9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal predictability may thus shift from sea ice volume to ocean-driven processes.

National Category
Climate Science
Research subject
Climate; Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6138 (URN)10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 (DOI)000672228600001 ()
Available from: 2021-08-03 Created: 2021-08-03 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Docquier, D., Koenigk, T., Fuentes Franco, R., Karami, P. & Ruprich-Robert, Y. (2021). Impact of ocean heat transport on the Arctic sea-ice decline: a model study with EC-Earth3. Climate Dynamics
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Impact of ocean heat transport on the Arctic sea-ice decline: a model study with EC-Earth3
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2021 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Science
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6055 (URN)10.1007/s00382-020-05540-8 (DOI)000606734100004 ()
Available from: 2021-02-02 Created: 2021-02-02 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Karami, P., Myers, P. G., de Vernal, A., Tremblay, L. B. & Hu, X. (2021). The role of Arctic gateways on sea ice and circulation in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans: a sensitivity study with an ocean-sea-ice model. Climate Dynamics
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The role of Arctic gateways on sea ice and circulation in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans: a sensitivity study with an ocean-sea-ice model
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2021 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The impact of changes in volume, heat and freshwater fluxes through Arctic gateways on sea ice, circulation and fresh water and heat contents of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans is not fully understood. To explore the role played by each gateway, we use a regional sea-ice ocean general circulation model with a fixed atmospheric forcing. We run sensitivity simulations with combinations of Bering Strait (BS) and Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) open and closed inspired by paleogeography of the Arctic. We show that fluxes through BS influence the Arctic, Atlantic and Nordic Seas while the impact of the CAA is more dominant in the Nordic Seas. In the experiments with BS closed, there is a change in the surface circulation of the Arctic with a weakening of the Beaufort Gyre by about thirty percent. As a consequence, the Siberian river discharge is spread offshore to the west, rather than being directly advected away by the Transpolar Drift. This results in a decrease of salinity in the upper 50 m across much of the central Arctic and East Siberian and Chukchi Seas. We also find an increase in stratification between the surface and subsurface layers after closure of BS. Moreover, closure of the BS results in an upward shift of the relatively warm waters lying between 50 and 120 m, as well as a reorganization of heat storage and transport. Consequently, more heat is kept in the upper layers of the Arctic Ocean, thus increasing the heat content in the upper 50 m and leading to a thinner sea ice cover. The CAA closing has a large impact on sea ice, temperature and salinity in the subarctic North Atlantic with opposite responses in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas and Baffin Bay. It is also found that CAA being open or closed strongly controls the sea ice export through the Fram Strait. In all our experiments, the changes in temperature and salinity of the Barents and Kara Seas, and in fluxes through Barents Sea Opening are relatively small, suggesting that they are likely controlled by the atmospheric processes. Our results demonstrate the need to take into consideration the fluxes through the Arctic gateways when addressing the ocean and climate changes during deglaciations as well as for predictions of future climate.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Climate; Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6108 (URN)10.1007/s00382-021-05798-6 (DOI)000650313500002 ()
Available from: 2021-06-01 Created: 2021-06-01 Last updated: 2021-06-01Bibliographically approved
Wyser, K., Koenigk, T., Fladrich, U., Fuentes Franco, R., Karami, P. & Kruschke, T. (2021). The SMHI Large Ensemble (SMHI-LENS) with EC-Earth3.3.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(7), 5781-5796
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The SMHI Large Ensemble (SMHI-LENS) with EC-Earth3.3.1
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2021 (English)In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 14, no 7, p. 5781-5796Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Science
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6151 (URN)10.5194/gmd-14-4781-2021 (DOI)000680220800003 ()
Available from: 2021-08-17 Created: 2021-08-17 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Karami, P., Mohtadi, M., Zhang, Q. & Koenigk, T. (2020). West Asian climate during the last millennium according to the EC-Earth model. Canadian journal of earth sciences (Print), 57(1), 102-113
Open this publication in new window or tab >>West Asian climate during the last millennium according to the EC-Earth model
2020 (English)In: Canadian journal of earth sciences (Print), ISSN 0008-4077, E-ISSN 1480-3313, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 102-113Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Science
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5619 (URN)10.1139/cjes-2018-0216 (DOI)000505672300008 ()
Available from: 2020-01-21 Created: 2020-01-21 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
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ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-0390-2889

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