International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SE-CAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-As-Usual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during present day conditions (as a mean over the two models), decreasing to approximately 600 cases in the 2050 BAU scenario. Introducing a HFO ban has the potential to lower the number of cases associated with emissions from shipping to approximately 550 in 2050, while the SECA scenario has a smaller impact. The "worst-case" scenario of no additional regulation of shipping emissions combined with a high growth in the shipping traffic will, on the other hand, lead to a small increase in the relative impact of shipping, and the number of premature deaths related to shipping is in that scenario projected to be around 900 in 2050. This scenario also leads to increased deposition of nitrogen and black carbon in the Arctic, with potential impacts on environment and climate.

I denna studie har emissioner och halter i utomhusluften av benso(a)pyren (B(a)P) samt partiklar (PM2.5) beräknats för Skellefteå, Strömsunds och Alingsås kommuner avseende småskalig uppvärmning. Emissioner har beräknats för hela kommunerna, medan luftkvalitet har modellerats för två tätorter i varje kommun; Boliden och Bureå i Skellefteå kommun, Backe och Hoting i Strömsunds kommun samt Alingsås och Sollebrunn i Alingsås kommun. De tre kommunerna valdes då de identifierades ha höga B(a)P-halter i den tidigare nationella B(a)P-kartläggningen samt tillgång till sotarregister av tillräcklig bra kvalitet; tätorterna valdes genom att analysera emissionsberäkningarna i varje kommun och välja ut tätorter med de högsta emissionerna.

Syftet med studien är undersöka hur B(a)P- och PM2.5-halterna i Sverige förhåller sig till miljökvalitetsnormer, utvärderingströsklar samt preciseringen av miljökvalitetsmålet Frisk luft och analysera hur stort gapet är för att klara dessa. Detta genom spridningsmodellering samt utvärdering mot mätningar i fem av tätorterna. Osäkerheterna i den tidigare gjorda nationella karteringen av B(a)Phalter från småskalig vedeldning (Andersson et al., 2015), som ska ses som en preliminär bedömning av halterna, utvärderas också. Vidare undersöks, genom känslighetsanalys, hur antaganden om emissionsfaktorer och eldvanor påverkar luftkvaliteten i områdena. En av de åtgärder som utreds är att byta ut gamla vedpannor mot moderna eldstäder. Luftmiljövinsterna av detta undersöks också genomspridningsmodellering.

Emissionerna från eldstäderna har beräknats utifrån information från sotarregister i de olika kommunerna, där eldstäderna har klassificerats som vedpannor (miljögodkända och ickemiljögodkända), lokaleldstäder, flis- och pelletspannor samt övriga pannor (mest oljepannor). Geolokalisering, dvs. framtagandet av koordinater, har gjorts för de olika eldstäderna i registren baserat på adresser. Med hjälp av modellerade energibehov för ett genomsnittligt meteorologiskt kalenderår för perioden 1960-1990, för ett genomsnittligt småhus, samt antaganden om emissionsfaktorer, eldstäders nyttjandegrad samt verkningsgrad har sedan emissionerna beräknats.

Lokalskalig spridningsmodellering med en rumslig upplösning om 20 m × 20 m har genomförts för de utvalda tätorterna med den Gaussiska lokalskaliga spridningsmodellen Dispersion, som är samma lokala modell som finns i modellsystemet SIMAIR-ved. Vid spridningsmodelleringen har meteorologiska data från Mesan för kalenderår 2016 och 2017 använts. Bakgrundshalter har inkluderats för PM2.5, men enbart lokalt haltbidrag från småskalig uppvärmning har beräknats för B(a)P; ett schablontillägg av bakgrundshalter för B(a)P har gjorts för varje tätort. Modelleringen har också utvärderats mot preliminära mätresultat (månadsprovtagning) av B(a)P avseende juni- december 2017 i Boliden, Bureå, Backe, Hoting samt Alingsås tätort samt mätningar av PM2.5 i Bureå och Backe (mätningarna har utförts av Svenska Miljöinstitutet IVL på uppdrag av Naturvårdsverket)

In this study we have investigated the effects of emissions from aviation on air quality in both Swedish and European domains. The results will be used as a basis to estimate the marginal cost for air traffic in Sweden. The vertical, geographical and temporal distribution of aviation emissions over Sweden has been estimated using a newly developed methodology. The aviation emissions have been categorized by their emission altitude (LTO, low cruise and high cruise) and flight nationality (international, national and overflight). This aviation emission information was then used as input data to the regional atmospheric chemistry model MATCH to simulate the effects of aviation emissions on ecosystem, health and climate metrics. A total of 17 model simulations over three years have been performed. There is one simulation in which all emitted species from the surface and aviation emissions are included and eight simulations in which all aviation emissions from each combination of emission altitude and flight nationality are included. There are eight simulations in which NOx aviation emissions from each combination of emission altitude and flight nationality are included. Using these simulations, contributions from aviation emissions to deposition, concentrations and a range of different air pollution metrics has been calculated. The results are calculated in both the Europe and Swedish domains for all the simulations. 

The following results are included in this report: . Deposition of oxidised and reduced nitrogen . Deposition of excess sulfur . AOT40 and SOMO35 and their exposures . Concentration and exposure of primary and secondary particles . Concentration of nitrate and sulfate particles . Concentration of surface and above surface ozone 

In summary, contributions from aviation emissions in Sweden to the different concentrations, deposition and metrics for environmental effects are generally small, on the order of a few per mille or less. However the impacts can be traced in the simulations well beyond the Swedish borders. LTO emissions give the largest contribution to deposition of oxidised and reduced nitrogen, deposition of excess sulfur and concentrations of primary and secondary particles. In particular near the major airports like Stockholm-Arlanda and Gothenburg-Landvetter. High cruise emissions give insignificant contributions to deposition and concentrations at surface level. LTO emissions give a negative contribution to surface ozone concentration locally at the main Swedish airports but give an overall increased contribution in the regions around. Aviation emissions at low cruise and high cruise levels have the largest effect on ozone concentrations at higher levels.