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Fuentes Franco, Ramon
Publications (8 of 8) Show all publications
Cavazos, T., Luna-Nino, R., Cerezo-Mota, R., Fuentes Franco, R., Mendez, M., Pineda Martinez, L. F. & Valenzuela, E. (2019). Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX-CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain. International Journal of Climatology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX-CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain
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2019 (English)In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

An intercomparison of three regional climate models (RCMs) (PRECIS-HadRM3P, RCA4, and RegCM4) was performed over the Coordinated Regional Dynamical Experiment (CORDEX)-Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico (CAM) domain to determine their ability to reproduce observed temperature and precipitation trends during 1980-2010. Particular emphasis was given to the North American monsoon (NAM) and the mid-summer drought (MSD) regions. The three RCMs show negative (positive) temperature (precipitation) biases over the mountains, where observations have more problems due to poor data coverage. Observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ERA-Interim show a generalized warming over the domain. The most significant warming trend (>= 0.34 degrees C/decade) is observed in the NAM, which is moderately captured by the three RCMs, but with less intensity; each decade from 1970 to 2016 has become warmer than the previous ones, especially during the summer (mean and extremes); this warming appears partially related to the positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). CRU, GPCP, and CHIRPS show significant decreases of precipitation (less than -15%/decade) in parts of the southwest United States and northwestern Mexico, including the NAM, and a positive trend (5-10%/decade) in June-September in eastern Mexico, the MSD region, and northern South America, but longer trends (1950-2017) are not statistically significant. RCMs are able to moderately simulate some of the recent trends, especially in winter. In spite of their mean biases, the RCMs are able to adequately simulate inter-annual and seasonal variations. Wet (warm) periods in regions affected by the MSD are significantly correlated with the +AMO and La Nina events (+AMO and El Nino). Summer precipitation trends from GPCP show opposite signs to those of CRU and CHIRPS over the Mexican coasts of the southern Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Cuba, possibly due to data limitations and differences in grid resolutions.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5439 (URN)10.1002/joc.6276 (DOI)000484747500001 ()
Available from: 2019-10-14 Created: 2019-10-14 Last updated: 2019-11-11Bibliographically approved
Barreiro, M., Sitz, L., de Mello, S., Fuentes Franco, R., Renom, M. & Farneti, R. (2019). Modelling the role of Atlantic air-sea interaction in the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation on South American climate. International Journal of Climatology, 39(2), 1104-1116
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling the role of Atlantic air-sea interaction in the impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation on South American climate
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2019 (English)In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 39, no 2, p. 1104-1116Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5176 (URN)10.1002/joc.5865 (DOI)000459665000034 ()
Available from: 2019-03-19 Created: 2019-03-19 Last updated: 2019-05-08Bibliographically approved
Fuentes Franco, R. & Koenigk, T. (2019). Sensitivity of the Arctic freshwater content and transport to model resolution. Climate Dynamics, 53(3-4), 1765-1781
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sensitivity of the Arctic freshwater content and transport to model resolution
2019 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, no 3-4, p. 1765-1781Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5326 (URN)10.1007/s00382-019-04735-y (DOI)000475558800031 ()
Available from: 2019-08-07 Created: 2019-08-07 Last updated: 2019-08-13Bibliographically approved
Corrales-Suastegui, A., Fuentes Franco, R. & Pavia, E. G. (2019). The mid-summer drought over Mexico and Central America in the 21st century. International Journal of Climatology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The mid-summer drought over Mexico and Central America in the 21st century
2019 (English)In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) region shows a dominant well-defined precipitation annual cycle. The rainy season usually begins in May and ends in October, with a relatively dry period in July and August known as the mid-summer drought (MSD); notable exceptions are the Caribbean coast of Honduras and Costa Rica. This MSD phenomenon is expected to be affected as the SMCA experiences an enhanced differential warming between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (PO-AO) towards the end of the 21st century. Previous studies have suggested that this differential warming will induce a strengthening of the westward Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) and that this heightened CLLJ will shift precipitation westwards, falling on the PO instead that within the SMCA region causing a severe drought. In this work we examine this scenario with a new model, the Rossby Center Regional Climate Model (RCA4), for the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) Central America domain, forced with different general circulation models (GCMs) and for different representative concentration paths (RCPs). We consider 25-year periods as "present conditions" (1981-2005) and "future scenario" (2071-2095), focusing on the "extended summer" season (May-October). Results suggest that in the future the spatial extension of the MSD will decrease and that in certain areas the MSD will be more intense but less frequent compared to present conditions. Also, the oceanic differential warming, the intensification of the CLLJ, and the reduction in regional precipitation in the future scenario, suggested by previous works, were verified in this study.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5437 (URN)10.1002/joc.6296 (DOI)000486176500001 ()
Available from: 2019-10-14 Created: 2019-10-14 Last updated: 2019-11-11Bibliographically approved
Koenigk, T. & Fuentes Franco, R. (2019). Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures?. International Journal of Climatology, 39(11), 4567-4574
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures?
2019 (English)In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 39, no 11, p. 4567-4574Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5413 (URN)10.1002/joc.6099 (DOI)000483703900025 ()
Available from: 2019-09-18 Created: 2019-09-18 Last updated: 2019-09-18Bibliographically approved
Amador, J. A., Ambrizzi, T., Arritt, R. W., Castro, C. L., Cavazos, T., Cerezo-Mota, R., . . . Rivera, E. R. (2018). Putting into action the REGCM4.6 regional climate model for the study of climate change, variability and modeling over Central America and Mexico. Atmósfera, 31(2), 185-188
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Putting into action the REGCM4.6 regional climate model for the study of climate change, variability and modeling over Central America and Mexico
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2018 (English)In: Atmósfera, ISSN 0187-6236, Vol. 31, no 2, p. 185-188Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4847 (URN)10.20937/ATM.2018.31.02.06 (DOI)000439018400006 ()
Available from: 2018-08-06 Created: 2018-08-06 Last updated: 2018-08-06Bibliographically approved
Fuentes Franco, R., Giorgi, F., Pavia, E. G., Graef, F. & Coppola, E. (2018). Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach. International Journal of Climatology, 38(11), 4051-4065
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach
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2018 (English)In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 38, no 11, p. 4051-4065Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4965 (URN)10.1002/joc.5550 (DOI)000443683600001 ()
Available from: 2018-09-19 Created: 2018-09-19 Last updated: 2018-09-19Bibliographically approved
Sitz, L. E., Di Sante, F., Farneti, R., Fuentes Franco, R., Coppola, E., Mariotti, L., . . . Giorgi, F. (2017). Description and evaluation of the Earth System Regional Climate Model (Reg CM-ES). Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9(4), 1863-1886
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Description and evaluation of the Earth System Regional Climate Model (Reg CM-ES)
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2017 (English)In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, ISSN 1942-2466, Vol. 9, no 4, p. 1863-1886Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4332 (URN)10.1002/2017MS000933 (DOI)000411384800008 ()
Available from: 2017-11-10 Created: 2017-11-10 Last updated: 2017-11-10Bibliographically approved
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