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Bosshard, T., Kotlarski, S., Zappa, M. & Schaer, C. (2014). Hydrological Climate-Impact Projections for the Rhine River: GCM-RCM Uncertainty and Separate Temperature and Precipitation Effects. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15(2), 697-713
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hydrological Climate-Impact Projections for the Rhine River: GCM-RCM Uncertainty and Separate Temperature and Precipitation Effects
2014 (English)In: Journal of Hydrometeorology, ISSN 1525-755X, E-ISSN 1525-7541, Vol. 15, no 2, p. 697-713Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle, with considerable impacts on water resources. Climate-induced changes in the hydrology of the Rhine River (Europe) are of major importance for the riparian countries, as the Rhine River is the most important European waterway, serves as a freshwater supply source, and is prone to floods and droughts. Here regional climate model data from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is used to drive the hydrological model Precipitation-Runoff-Evapotranspiration-Hydrotope (PREVAH) and to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology in the Rhine basin. Results suggest increases in monthly mean runoff during winter and decreases in summer. At the gauge Cologne and for the period 2070-99 under the A1B scenario of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, projected decreases in summer vary between -9% and -40% depending on the climate model used, while increases in winter are in the range of +4% to +51%. These projected changes in mean runoff are generally consistent with earlier studies, but the derived spread in the runoff projections appears to be larger. It is demonstrated that temperature effects (e.g., through altered snow processes) dominate in the Alpine tributaries, while precipitation effects dominate in the lower portion of the Rhine basin. Analyses are also presented for selected extreme runoff indices.

Keywords
Europe, Watersheds, Runoff, Climate change, Water budget
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-118 (URN)10.1175/JHM-D-12-098.1 (DOI)000334179500011 ()
Available from: 2015-04-10 Created: 2015-03-26 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Rossa, A., Liechti, K., Zappa, M., Bruen, M., Germann, U., Haase, G., . . . Krahe, P. (2011). The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Atmospheric research, 100(2-3), 150-167
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems
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2011 (English)In: Atmospheric research, ISSN 0169-8095, E-ISSN 1873-2895, Vol. 100, no 2-3, p. 150-167Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Quantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly nonlinear model components involved in such a system. Much effort has been and is being invested in the quest of dealing with uncertain precipitation observations and forecasts and the propagation of such uncertainties through hydrological and hydraulic models predicting river discharges and risk for inundation. The COST 731 Action is one of these and constitutes a European initiative which deals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems. COST 731 addresses three major lines of development: (1) combining meteorological and hydrological models to form a forecast chain, (2) propagating uncertainty information through this chain and make it available to end users in a suitable form, (3) advancing high-resolution numerical weather prediction precipitation forecasts by using non-conventional observations from, for instance, radar to determine details in the initial conditions on scales smaller than what can be resolved by conventional observing systems. Recognizing the interdisciplinarity of the challenge COST 731 has organized its work forming Working Groups at the interfaces between the different scientific disciplines involved, i.e. between observation and atmospheric (and hydrological) modelling (WG-1), between atmospheric and hydrologic modelling (WG-2) and between hydrologic modelling and end-users (WG-3). This paper summarizes the COST 731 activities and its context, provides a review of the recent progress made in dealing with uncertainties in flood forecasting, and sets the scene for the papers of this Thematic Issue. In particular, a bibliometric analysis highlights the strong recent increase in addressing the uncertainty analysis in flood forecasting from an integrated perspective. Such a perspective necessarily involves the area of meteorology, hydrology, and decision making in order to take operational advantage of the scientific progress, an aspect in which COST 731 is successfully contributing to furthering the flood damage mitigation capabilities in Europe. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords
Uncertainty, Flood forecasting, Radar, NWP, EPS, COST, MAP D-PHASE
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Meteorology; Remote sensing
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-524 (URN)10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.11.016 (DOI)000290501600002 ()
Available from: 2015-04-17 Created: 2015-04-15 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-2837-8190

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