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Kotilainen, A. T., Arppe, L., Dobosz, S., Jansen, E., Kabel, K., Karhu, J., . . . Zhamoida, V. (2014). Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort. Ambio, 43(1), 60-68
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort
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2014 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, no 1, p. 60-68Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, Climate change, Holocene, Inflow, Multiproxy analyses, Modeling
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-130 (URN)10.1007/s13280-013-0477-4 (DOI)000329831800006 ()24414805 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-10 Created: 2015-03-26 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Niiranen, S., Yletyinen, J., Tomczak, M. T., Blenckner, T., Hjerne, O., MacKenzie, B. R., . . . Meier, M. (2013). Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web. Global Change Biology, 19(11), 3327-3342
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web
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2013 (English)In: Global Change Biology, ISSN 1354-1013, E-ISSN 1365-2486, Vol. 19, no 11, p. 3327-3342Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, climate change, Ecopath with Ecosim, eutrophication, fishing, food web, nutrient loads
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-343 (URN)10.1111/gcb.12309 (DOI)000325567100009 ()23818413 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-14 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Kuznetsov, I. & Neumann, T. (2013). Simulation of carbon dynamics in the Baltic Sea with a 3D model. Journal of Marine Systems, 111, 167-174
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Simulation of carbon dynamics in the Baltic Sea with a 3D model
2013 (English)In: Journal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963, E-ISSN 1879-1573, Vol. 111, p. 167-174Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A full resolved three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical model ERGOM (Ecological ReGional Ocean model) was used to simulate the carbon dynamics in the Baltic Sea. Here, a simple carbon cycle has been included in the model. This was accomplished by the addition of dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity to the model. Model results of the hindcast simulation (1961-2007) are in a good agreement with observations. Lateral gradients of the alkalinity are well reproduced by the model. A net inorganic carbon transport from the Baltic Sea to the Kattegat is in the range of the results of previous studies. Further, two climate projections with different nutrient load scenarios reflecting the possible development of the carbon system dynamics in the Baltic Sea were conducted. Climate scenario simulations (1961-2100) showed a continuous "acidification effect" of the Baltic Sea that mainly is controlled by changing of the atmospheric pCO(2). However, changes in pH due to other factors (such as changing temperature, primary production) are different for different regions of the sea. Simulated mean total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon decrease in scenarios of climate change despite the increase of total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon loads. The performed climate simulations show that mean total alkalinity decreases by about 150 mmol m(-3) and dissolved inorganic carbon by about 80-120 mmol m(-3). At the same time total alkalinity to salinity relations change in future climate due to that salinity decreases "faster" than alkalinity. Simultaneously, export of the total alkalinity and the dissolved inorganic carbon from the Baltic Sea to the North Sea has the trend to increase from 11% to 18% depending on the climate scenario. C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, Ecosystem modeling, Carbon dynamics, Climate change
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-391 (URN)10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.10.011 (DOI)000314375500014 ()
Available from: 2015-04-02 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Meier, M., Andersson, H., Arheimer, B., Blenckner, T., Chubarenko, B., Donnelly, C., . . . Zorita, E. (2012). Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem-first results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Environmental Research Letters, 7(3), Article ID 034005.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem-first results from multi-model ensemble simulations
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2012 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 7, no 3, article id 034005Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, numerical modeling, climate change, eutrophication, scenarios, ensemble modeling, marine biogeochemical cycles, marine food web, Baltic Sea Action Plan, decision support system
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-451 (URN)10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034005 (DOI)000309555300006 ()
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Neumann, T., Eilola, K., Gustafsson, B., Muller-Karulis, B., Kuznetsov, I., Meier, M. & Savchuk, O. P. (2012). Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate. Ambio, 41(6), 574-585
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate
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2012 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 574-585Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, Climate change, Modeling, Ecosystem
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-441 (URN)10.1007/s13280-012-0321-2 (DOI)000308039100006 ()22926880 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Meier, M., Muller-Karulis, B., Andersson, H., Dieterich, C., Eilola, K., Gustafsson, B. G., . . . Schimanke, S. (2012). Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study. Ambio, 41(6), 558-573
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study
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2012 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 558-573Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, Numerical modeling, Climate change, Eutrophication, Scenarios, Marine biogeochemical cycles
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-440 (URN)10.1007/s13280-012-0320-3 (DOI)000308039100005 ()22926879 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Gustafsson, B. G., Schenk, F., Blenckner, T., Eilola, K., Meier, M., Muller-Karulis, B., . . . Zorita, E. (2012). Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850-2006. Ambio, 41(6), 534-548
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850-2006
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2012 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 534-548Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.

Keywords
Nutrients, Oxygen, Baltic Sea, Reconstruction, Climate, Eutrophication
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-438 (URN)10.1007/s13280-012-0318-x (DOI)000308039100003 ()22926877 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-5653-906X

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