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Publications (6 of 6) Show all publications
Ruoho-Airola, T., Eilola, K., Savchuk, O. P., Parviainen, M. & Tarvainen, V. (2012). Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data. Ambio, 41(6), 549-557
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data
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2012 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 549-557Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, Deposition, Historical, Nitrogen, Phosphorus
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-439 (URN)10.1007/s13280-012-0319-9 (DOI)000308039100004 ()22926878 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Meier, M., Andersson, H., Arheimer, B., Blenckner, T., Chubarenko, B., Donnelly, C., . . . Zorita, E. (2012). Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem-first results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Environmental Research Letters, 7(3), Article ID 034005.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem-first results from multi-model ensemble simulations
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2012 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 7, no 3, article id 034005Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, numerical modeling, climate change, eutrophication, scenarios, ensemble modeling, marine biogeochemical cycles, marine food web, Baltic Sea Action Plan, decision support system
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-451 (URN)10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034005 (DOI)000309555300006 ()
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Neumann, T., Eilola, K., Gustafsson, B., Muller-Karulis, B., Kuznetsov, I., Meier, M. & Savchuk, O. P. (2012). Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate. Ambio, 41(6), 574-585
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate
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2012 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 574-585Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, Climate change, Modeling, Ecosystem
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-441 (URN)10.1007/s13280-012-0321-2 (DOI)000308039100006 ()22926880 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Meier, M., Muller-Karulis, B., Andersson, H., Dieterich, C., Eilola, K., Gustafsson, B. G., . . . Schimanke, S. (2012). Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study. Ambio, 41(6), 558-573
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study
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2012 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 558-573Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

Keywords
Baltic Sea, Numerical modeling, Climate change, Eutrophication, Scenarios, Marine biogeochemical cycles
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-440 (URN)10.1007/s13280-012-0320-3 (DOI)000308039100005 ()22926879 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Gustafsson, B. G., Schenk, F., Blenckner, T., Eilola, K., Meier, M., Muller-Karulis, B., . . . Zorita, E. (2012). Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850-2006. Ambio, 41(6), 534-548
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850-2006
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2012 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 534-548Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.

Keywords
Nutrients, Oxygen, Baltic Sea, Reconstruction, Climate, Eutrophication
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-438 (URN)10.1007/s13280-012-0318-x (DOI)000308039100003 ()22926877 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Conley, D. J., Bjorck, S., Bonsdorff, E., Carstensen, J., Destouni, G., Gustafsson, B. G., . . . Zillen, L. (2009). Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea. Environmental Science and Technology, 43(10), 3412-3420
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea
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2009 (English)In: Environmental Science and Technology, ISSN 0013-936X, E-ISSN 1520-5851, Vol. 43, no 10, p. 3412-3420Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Hypoxia, a growing worldwide problem, has been intermittently present in the modern Baltic Sea since its formation ca. 8000 cal. yr BP. However, both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia have increased with anthropogenic eutrophication due to nutrient inputs. Physical processes, which control stratification and the renewal of oxygen in bottom waters, are important constraints on the formation and maintenance of hypoxia. Climate controlled inflows of saline water from the North Sea through the Danish Straits is a critical controlling factor governing the spatial extent and duration of hypoxia. Hypoxia regulates the biogeochemical cycles of both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in the water column and sediments. Significant amounts of P are currently released from sediments, an order of magnitude larger than anthropogenic inputs. The Baltic Sea is unique for coastal marine ecosystems experiencing N losses in hypoxic waters below the halocline. Although benthic communities in the Baltic Sea are naturally constrained by salinity gradients, hypoxia has resulted in habitat loss over vast areas and the elimination of benthic fauna, and has severely disrupted benthic food webs. Nutrient load reductions are needed to reduce the extent, severity, and effects of hypoxia.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-616 (URN)10.1021/es802762a (DOI)000266046700006 ()19544833 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-23 Created: 2015-04-21 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-3873-4662

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