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Belda, M., Skalak, P., Farda, A., Halenka, T., Deque, M., Csima, G., . . . Spiridonov, V. (2015). CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal. Advances in Meteorology, Article ID 354727.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal
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2015 (English)In: Advances in Meteorology, ISSN 1687-9309, E-ISSN 1687-9317, article id 354727Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3 degrees C in the first period and 2 and 5 degrees C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to -1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2000 (URN)10.1155/2015/354727 (DOI)000352434800001 ()
Available from: 2016-04-13 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Skalak, P., Deque, M., Belda, M., Farda, A., Halenka, T., Csima, G., . . . Spiridonov, V. (2014). CECILIA regional climate simulations for the present climate: validation and inter-comparison. Climate Research (CR), 60(1), 1-12
Open this publication in new window or tab >>CECILIA regional climate simulations for the present climate: validation and inter-comparison
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2014 (English)In: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 60, no 1, p. 1-12Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We investigated high-resolution simulations of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by ERA-40 reanalyses over areas of selected European countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania) for the period 1961-1990. RCMs were run at a spatial resolution of 10 km in the framework of the CECILIA project, and their outputs were compared with the EOBS dataset of gridded observations and RCM simulations at coarser 25 km resolution from the ENSEMBLES project to identify a possible gain from the CECILIA experiments over ENSEMBLES. Cold biases of air temperature and wet biases of precipitation dominate in the CECILIA simulations. Spatial variability and distribution of the air temperature field are well captured. The precipitation field, relative to observations, often shows inadequately small spatial variability and lowered correlations but is nevertheless comparable to the ENSEMBLES model. Inter-annual variability (IAV) of air temperature is captured differently among seasons but mostly improved in CECILIA compared with ENSEMBLES. Precipitation IAV shows a similar or worse score. The detected weaknesses found within the validation of the CECILIA RCMs are attributed to the resolution dependence of the set of physical parameterizations in the models and the choice of integration domain. The gain obtained by using a high resolution over a small domain (as in CECILIA) relative to a lower resolution (25 km) over a larger domain (as in ENSEMBLES) is clear for air temperature but limited for precipitation.

Keywords
RCM, Model performance, Validation, CECILIA, ALADIN-Climate, RegCM3
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-157 (URN)10.3354/cr01207 (DOI)000337053900001 ()
Available from: 2015-04-07 Created: 2015-03-26 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Jacob, D., Belda, M., Colette, A., Deque, M., . . . Yiou, P. (2013). The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Climate Dynamics, 41(9-10), 2555-2575
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project
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2013 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 41, no 9-10, p. 2555-2575Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.

Keywords
Regional climate modeling, Heat waves, Model evaluation, Climate projection, EURO-CORDEX
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-342 (URN)10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z (DOI)000326244700019 ()
Available from: 2015-04-14 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-9514-4888

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