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Publications (10 of 16) Show all publications
Caian, M., Koenigk, T., Doescher, R. & Devasthale, A. (2018). An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 50(1-2), 423-441
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation
2018 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 50, no 1-2, p. 423-441Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4490 (URN)10.1007/s00382-017-3618-9 (DOI)000422908700026 ()
Available from: 2018-02-06 Created: 2018-02-06 Last updated: 2018-02-06Bibliographically approved
Caian, M., Koenigk, T., Doescher, R. & Devasthale, A. (2018). An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation (vol 50, pg 423, 2017). Climate Dynamics, 50(1-2), 443-443
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation (vol 50, pg 423, 2017)
2018 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 50, no 1-2, p. 443-443Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4491 (URN)10.1007/s00382-017-3684-z (DOI)000422908700027 ()
Available from: 2018-02-06 Created: 2018-02-06 Last updated: 2018-02-06Bibliographically approved
Chadwick, R., Martin, G. M., Copsey, D., Bellon, G., Caian, M., Codron, F., . . . Roehrig, R. (2017). Examining the West African Monsoon circulation response to atmospheric heating in a GCM dynamical core. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9(1), 149-167
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Examining the West African Monsoon circulation response to atmospheric heating in a GCM dynamical core
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2017 (English)In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, ISSN 1942-2466, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 149-167Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4094 (URN)10.1002/2016MS000728 (DOI)000399756400008 ()
Available from: 2017-05-11 Created: 2017-05-11 Last updated: 2017-05-11Bibliographically approved
Martin, G. M., Peyrille, P., Roehrig, R., Rio, C., Caian, M., Bellon, G., . . . Idelkadi, A. (2017). Understanding the West African Monsoon from the analysis of diabatic heating distributions as simulated by climate models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9(1), 239-270
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding the West African Monsoon from the analysis of diabatic heating distributions as simulated by climate models
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2017 (English)In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, ISSN 1942-2466, Vol. 9, no 1, p. 239-270Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4095 (URN)10.1002/2016MS000697 (DOI)000399756400012 ()
Available from: 2017-05-11 Created: 2017-05-11 Last updated: 2017-05-11Bibliographically approved
Leroux, S., Bellon, G., Roehrig, R., Caian, M., Klingaman, N. P., Lafore, J.-P., . . . Tyteca, S. (2016). Inter-model comparison of subseasonal tropical variability in aquaplanet experiments: Effect of a warm pool. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8(4), 1526-1551
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Inter-model comparison of subseasonal tropical variability in aquaplanet experiments: Effect of a warm pool
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2016 (English)In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, ISSN 1942-2466, Vol. 8, no 4, p. 1526-1551Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3931 (URN)10.1002/2016MS000683 (DOI)000392813100002 ()
Available from: 2017-03-01 Created: 2017-03-01 Last updated: 2017-11-29Bibliographically approved
Koenigk, T., Caian, M., Nikulin, G. & Schimanke, S. (2016). Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions. Climate Dynamics, 46(1-2), 317-337
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions
2016 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 46, no 1-2, p. 317-337Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data and satellite sea ice data for the period 1980-2013. We find significant correlations between ice areas in both September and November and winter sea level pressure, air temperature and precipitation. The prediction skill is improved when using November sea ice conditions as predictor compared to September. This is particularly true for predicting winter NAO-like patterns and blocking situations in the Euro-Atlantic area. We find that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be most important for the sign of the following winter NAO-negative after low ice-but amplitude and extension of the patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. November ice variability in the Greenland Sea provides the best prediction skill for central and western European temperature and ice variations in the Laptev/East Siberian Seas have the largest impact on the blocking number in the Euro-Atlantic region. Over North America, prediction skill is largest using September ice areas from the Pacific Arctic sector as predictor. Composite analyses of high and low regional autumn ice conditions reveal that the atmospheric response is not entirely linear suggesting changing predictive skill dependent on sign and amplitude of the anomaly. The results confirm the importance of realistic sea ice initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. However, correlations do seldom exceed 0.6 indicating that Arctic sea ice variations can only explain a part of winter climate variations in northern mid and high latitudes.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2046 (URN)10.1007/s00382-015-2586-1 (DOI)000370040100023 ()
Available from: 2016-05-02 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Bellucci, A., Haarsma, R., Gualdi, S., Athanasiadis, P. J., Caian, M., Cassou, C., . . . Yang, S. (2015). An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 44(9-10), 2787-2806
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions
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2015 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 44, no 9-10, p. 2787-2806Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A multi-model ensemble of decadal prediction experiments, performed in the framework of the EU-funded COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) Project following the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project protocol is examined. The ensemble combines a variety of dynamical models, initialization and perturbation strategies, as well as data assimilation products employed to constrain the initial state of the system. Taking advantage of the multi-model approach, several aspects of decadal climate predictions are assessed, including predictive skill, impact of the initialization strategy and the level of uncertainty characterizing the predicted fluctuations of key climate variables. The present analysis adds to the growing evidence that the current generation of climate models adequately initialized have significant skill in predicting years ahead not only the anthropogenic warming but also part of the internal variability of the climate system. An important finding is that the multi-model ensemble mean does generally outperform the individual forecasts, a well-documented result for seasonal forecasting, supporting the need to extend the multi-model framework to real-time decadal predictions in order to maximize the predictive capabilities of currently available decadal forecast systems. The multi-model perspective did also allow a more robust assessment of the impact of the initialization strategy on the quality of decadal predictions, providing hints of an improved forecast skill under full-value (with respect to anomaly) initialization in the near-term range, over the Indo-Pacific equatorial region. Finally, the consistency across the different model predictions was assessed. Specifically, different systems reveal a general agreement in predicting the near-term evolution of surface temperatures, displaying positive correlations between different decadal hindcasts over most of the global domain.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2002 (URN)10.1007/s00382-014-2164-y (DOI)000351459800026 ()
Available from: 2016-04-13 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Belda, M., Skalak, P., Farda, A., Halenka, T., Deque, M., Csima, G., . . . Spiridonov, V. (2015). CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal. Advances in Meteorology, Article ID 354727.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal
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2015 (English)In: Advances in Meteorology, ISSN 1687-9309, E-ISSN 1687-9317, article id 354727Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3 degrees C in the first period and 2 and 5 degrees C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to -1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2000 (URN)10.1155/2015/354727 (DOI)000352434800001 ()
Available from: 2016-04-13 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Couvreux, F., Roehrig, R., Rio, C., Lefebvre, M.-P. -., Caian, M., Komori, T., . . . Gentine, P. (2015). Representation of daytime moist convection over the semi-arid Tropics by parametrizations used in climate and meteorological models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(691), 2220-2236
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Representation of daytime moist convection over the semi-arid Tropics by parametrizations used in climate and meteorological models
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2015 (English)In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 141, no 691, p. 2220-2236Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A case of daytime development of deep convection over tropical semi-arid land is used to evaluate the representation of convection in global and regional models. The case is based on observations collected during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) field campaign and includes two distinct transition phases, from clear sky to shallow cumulus and from cumulus to deep convection. Different types of models, run with identical initial and boundary conditions, are intercompared: a reference large-eddy simulation (LES), single-column model (SCM) version of four different Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 exercise, the SCM version of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts operational forecast model, the SCM version of a mesoscale model and a bulk model. Surface fluxes and radiative heating are prescribed preventing any atmosphere-surface and cloud-radiation coupling in order to simplify the analyses so that it focuses only on convective processes. New physics packages are also evaluated within this framework. As the LES correctly reproduces the observed growth of the boundary layer, the gradual development of shallow clouds, the initiation of deep convection and the development of cold pools, it provides a basis to evaluate in detail the representation of the diurnal cycle of convection by the other models and to test the hypotheses underlying convective parametrizations. Most SCMs have difficulty in representing the timing of convective initiation and rain intensity, although substantial modifications to boundary-layer and deep-convection parametrizations lead to improvements. The SCMs also fail to represent the mid-level troposphere moistening during the shallow convection phase, which we analyse further. Nevertheless, beyond differences in timing of deep convection, the SCM models reproduce the sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions simulated in the LES regarding boundary-layer characteristics, and often the timing of convection triggering.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1953 (URN)10.1002/qj.2517 (DOI)000360986200020 ()
Available from: 2016-04-28 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Xavier, P. K., Petch, J. C., Klingaman, N. P., Woolnough, S. J., Jiang, X., Waliser, D. E., . . . Wang, H. (2015). Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 120(10), 4749-4763
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range
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2015 (English)In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 120, no 10, p. 4749-4763Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) project. A lead time of 12-36h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1971 (URN)10.1002/2014JD022718 (DOI)000356696800018 ()
Available from: 2016-04-26 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
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ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-7815-4259

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