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Guemas, V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Chevallier, M., Day, J. J., Deque, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., . . . Tietsche, S. (2016). A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(695), 546-561
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales
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2016 (English)In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 142, no 695, p. 546-561Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Sea ice plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy and water budget and has a substantial impact on local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea-ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea-ice predictability on these time-scales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea-ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea-ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea-ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2028 (URN)10.1002/qj.2401 (DOI)000372951300003 ()
Available from: 2016-05-03 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-8046-765X

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