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Publications (7 of 7) Show all publications
Foster, K., Uvo, C. B. & Olsson, J. (2018). The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(5), 2953-2970
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers
2018 (English)In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, no 5, p. 2953-2970Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4683 (URN)10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018 (DOI)000432476000001 ()
Available from: 2018-06-05 Created: 2018-06-05 Last updated: 2018-06-05Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J., Arheimer, B., Borris, M., Donnelly, C., Foster, K., Nikulin, G., . . . Yang, W. (2016). Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden. CLIMATE, 4(3), Article ID 39.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden
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2016 (English)In: CLIMATE, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4, no 3, article id 39Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3255 (URN)10.3390/cli4030039 (DOI)000382625300006 ()
Available from: 2016-10-04 Created: 2016-10-04 Last updated: 2018-01-14Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J., Arheimer, B., Borris, M., Donnelly, C., Foster, K., Nikulin, G., . . . Yang, W. (2016). Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Recent Progress and Current Issues.. Climate, 4(3)(39)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Recent Progress and Current Issues.
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2016 (English)In: Climate, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4(3), no 39Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3928 (URN)10.3390/cli4030039 (DOI)
Available from: 2017-02-22 Created: 2017-02-22 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J., Uvo, C. B., Foster, K. & Yang, W. (2016). Technical Note: Initial assessment of a multi-method approach to spring-flood forecasting in Sweden. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(2), 659-667
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technical Note: Initial assessment of a multi-method approach to spring-flood forecasting in Sweden
2016 (English)In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 20, no 2, p. 659-667Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden, and proper reservoir management prior to the spring-flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires accurate forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring-flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialized set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring-flood forecasting that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal timescales are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for the Swedish river Vindelalven over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring-flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for early forecasts improvements of up to 25% are found. This potential is reasonably well realized in a multi-method system, which over all forecast dates reduced the error in SFV by similar to 4 %. This improvement is limited but potentially significant for e.g. energy trading.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2195 (URN)10.5194/hess-20-659-2016 (DOI)000377697600006 ()
Available from: 2016-07-08 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2018-01-10Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J. & Foster, K. (2014). Short-term precipitation extremes in regional climate simulations for Sweden. HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, 45(3), 479-489
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Short-term precipitation extremes in regional climate simulations for Sweden
2014 (English)In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 45, no 3, p. 479-489Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate change is expected to generate higher short-term precipitation intensities, which may have negative consequences in terms of, for example, increased risk of flooding and sewer overflow. In this study, extreme precipitation for durations between 30 min and 1 day in simulations with the RCA3 regional climate model (RCM) for Sweden are analysed. As compared with daily observations in the period 1961-2010, the simulated extremes are found to be overall realistic with respect to magnitude, spatial homogeneity and temporal variability. In the ensemble of future projections, from 1981 to 2010 the 10-year 30-min precipitation will increase by 6% until 2011-2040, 15% until 2041-2070 and 23% until 2071-2100. The increase decreases with increasing duration and at the daily scale the percentage values are approximately halved. The values are largely consistent with earlier estimates. Assessment of the impacts on the results of the spatial resolution and the specific RCM used indicated possibilities of both smaller and larger future increases.

Keywords
local flooding, rainfall, regional climate model, urban hydrology
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-153 (URN)10.2166/nh.2013.206 (DOI)000338913600014 ()
Available from: 2015-04-08 Created: 2015-03-26 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Strombäck, L., Foster, K. & Rosberg, J. (2013). Data and Provenance Management for Climate Effect Studies. Adaption of Climate Data with Distribution Based Scaling for Hydrological Simulations.. In: Proceedings of DBKDA 2013, Seville, Spain.: . Paper presented at DBKDA 2013, Seville, Spain..
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data and Provenance Management for Climate Effect Studies. Adaption of Climate Data with Distribution Based Scaling for Hydrological Simulations.
2013 (English)In: Proceedings of DBKDA 2013, Seville, Spain., 2013Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5184 (URN)
Conference
DBKDA 2013, Seville, Spain.
Available from: 2019-04-15 Created: 2019-04-15 Last updated: 2019-04-16Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J. & Foster, K. (2013). Extrem korttidsnederbörd i klimatprojektioner för Sverige. SMHI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Extrem korttidsnederbörd i klimatprojektioner för Sverige
2013 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Klimatförändringen förväntas leda till mera intensiv korttidsnederbörd, vilket kan få negativa konsekvenser för t.ex. urban hydrologi. I denna studie analyseras extrem korttidsnederbörd i Sverige simulerad med den regionala klimatmodellen RCA3. En observerad svag ökning från period 1961-1990 till period 1981-2010 av dygnsnederbörd med 10 års återkomsttid kan kvalitativt återskapas av RCA3-modellen, både när den drivs med meteorologisk återanalys (ERA40) och med en ensemble av sex globala klimatprojektioner. Detta är ingen garanti för att simulerade framtida förändringar är korrekta, men tyder på en förmåga att beskriva förändringar av dygnsextremer ifall randvillkoren är de rätta. I ensemblen av framtida projektioner ökar 10-års 30-min nederbörden med 6% från 1981-2010 till 2011-2040, 15% till 2041-2070 och 23% till 2071-2100. Ökningen minskar med ökande varaktighet och på dygnsskala är de relativa förändringarna ungefär halverade. Analyser av inverkan på resultatet av dels den specifika modell som användes (RCA3), dels dess rumsliga upplösning (50 km) antydde möjligheter till både lägre och högre värden på de framtida förändringarna. En syntes av den forskning kring framtida korttidsextremer som utförts i Sverige till dags dato tyder på en förväntad ökning av extrem korttidsnederbörd (≤ 1 tim) med 10% till mitten av seklet (2050) och 25% till slutet av seklet (2100). Låga och höga uppskattingar bedöms till ±10 procentenheter från de förväntade värdena men även större avvikelser är möjliga. För dygnsextremer förväntas ökningen bli fem procentenheter lägre

Abstract [en]

Climate change is expected to generate higher short-term precipitation intensities, which may have negative consequences for e.g. urban hydrology. In this study, extreme short-term precipitation in simulations with the RCA3 regional climate model for Sweden are analysed. An observed weak increase in the 10-year daily precipitation from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 is qualitatively reproduced in RCA3 simulations forced with both meteorological re-analyses and an ensemble of six global climate projections. This does not guarantee that estimated future changes are correct, but indicates an ability of the model to describe changes in daily extremes when appropriate boundary conditions are used. In the ensemble of future projections, from 1981-2010 the 10-year 30-min precipitation will increase by 6% until 2011-2040, 15% until 2041-2070 and 23% until 2071-2100. The increase decreases with increasing duration and at the daily scale the percentage values are approximately halved. Assessment of the impacts on the results of both the specific RCM used (RCA3) and its spatial resolution (50 km) suggested possibilities of both lower and higher future changes.A synthesis of the work on future short-term precipitation extremes performed in Sweden to date suggests an expected 10% increase of the intensity related to very short durations (≤ 1 h) until 2050 and a 25% increase until 2100. Low and high estimates are suggested to be ±10 percentage points from the expected values but also larger deviations are possible. For duration 1 day, the increase is estimated to become five percentage points lower.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI, 2013. p. 32
Series
Climatology, ISSN 1654-2258 ; 6
Keywords
klimatologi, nederbörd
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2626 (URN)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Local ID)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Archive number)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (OAI)
Available from: 2013-03-28 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-0069-2513

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