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Graham, Phil
Publications (10 of 41) Show all publications
Wilk, J., Andersson, L., Graham, P., Wikner, J. J., Mokwatlo, S. & Petja, B. (2017). From forecasts to action - What is needed to make seasonal forecasts useful for South African smallholder farmers?. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 25, 202-211
Open this publication in new window or tab >>From forecasts to action - What is needed to make seasonal forecasts useful for South African smallholder farmers?
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2017 (English)In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, E-ISSN 2212-4209, Vol. 25, p. 202-211Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4424 (URN)10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.07.002 (DOI)000413937300016 ()
Available from: 2017-11-21 Created: 2017-11-21 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Andersson, L., Wilk, J., Graham, P. & Warburton, M. (2013). Design and test of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local climate adaptation plan. Climate and Development, 5(3), 217-228
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Design and test of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local climate adaptation plan
2013 (English)In: Climate and Development, ISSN 1756-5529, E-ISSN 1756-5537, Vol. 5, no 3, p. 217-228Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article presents the design and testing of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local adaptation plan to climate change. The pilot study focused on small-scale and commercial agriculture, water supply, housing, wildlife, livestock and biodiversity in the Thukela River basin, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The methodology was based on stakeholders identifying and ranking the severity of climate-related challenges, and downscaled stakeholder-identified information provided by modellers, with the aim of addressing possible changes of exposure in the future. The methodology enables the integration of model-based information with experience and visions based on local realities. It includes stakeholders' own assessments of their vulnerability to prevailing climate variability and the severity, if specified, of climate-related problems that may occur more often in the future. The methodology made it possible to identify the main issues to focus on in the adaptation plan, including barriers to adaptation. We make recommendations for how to design a model-assisted participatory process, emphasizing the need for transparency, to recognize the interests of the stakeholders, good advance planning, local relevance, involvement of local champions, and adaptation of Information material to each group's previous experience and understanding.

Keywords
adaptation, climate change, hydrology, participation, Africa
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-363 (URN)10.1080/17565529.2013.812955 (DOI)000324365900005 ()
Available from: 2015-04-10 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Wetterhall, F., Graham, P., Andreasson, J., Rosberg, J. & Yang, W. (2011). Using ensemble climate projections to assess probabilistic hydrological change in the Nordic region. Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 11(8), 2295-2306
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using ensemble climate projections to assess probabilistic hydrological change in the Nordic region
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2011 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 11, no 8, p. 2295-2306Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Assessing hydrological effects of global climate change at local scales is important for evaluating future hazards to society. However, applying climate model projections to local impact models can be difficult as outcomes can vary considerably between different climate models, and including results from many models is demanding. This study combines multiple climate model outputs with hydrological impact modelling through the use of response surfaces. Response surfaces represent the sensitivity of the impact model to incremental changes in climate variables and show probabilies for reaching a priori determined thresholds. Response surfaces were calculated using the HBV hydrological model for three basins in Sweden. An ensemble of future climate projections was then superimposed onto each response surface, producing a probability estimate for exceeding the threshold being evaluated. Site specific impacts thresholds were used where applicable. Probabilistic trends for future change in hazards or potential can be shown and evaluated. It is particularly useful for visualising the range of probable outcomes from climate models and can easily be updated with new results as they are made available.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-539 (URN)10.5194/nhess-11-2295-2011 (DOI)000294438700017 ()
Available from: 2015-04-15 Created: 2015-04-15 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Graham, P., Andersson, L., Horan, M., Kunz, R., Lumsden, T., Schulze, R., . . . Yang, W. (2011). Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa. Paper presented at 11th WaterNet/WARFSA/GWP-SA Annual Symposium, OCT 27-29, 2010, Victoria Falls, ZIMBABWE. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 36(14-15), 727-735
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa
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2011 (English)In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 36, no 14-15, p. 727-735Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords
Climate change, Hydrological impacts, Regional downscaling, Thukela River Basin
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-536 (URN)10.1016/j.pce.2011.07.084 (DOI)000296306100003 ()
Conference
11th WaterNet/WARFSA/GWP-SA Annual Symposium, OCT 27-29, 2010, Victoria Falls, ZIMBABWE
Available from: 2015-04-15 Created: 2015-04-15 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Yang, W., Andreasson, J., Graham, P., Olsson, J., Rosberg, J. & Wetterhall, F. (2010). Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies. HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, 41(3-4), 211-229
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies
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2010 (English)In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 41, no 3-4, p. 211-229Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

As climate change could have considerable influence on hydrology and corresponding water management, appropriate climate change inputs should be used for assessing future impacts. Although the performance of regional climate models (RCMs) has improved over time, systematic model biases still constrain the direct use of RCM output for hydrological impact studies. To address this, a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed that adjusts precipitation and temperature from RCMs to better reflect observations. Statistical properties, such as daily mean, standard deviation, distribution and frequency of precipitation days, were much improved for control periods compared to direct RCM output. DBS-adjusted precipitation and temperature from two IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESA1B) transient climate projections were used as inputs to the HBV hydrological model for several river basins in Sweden for the period 1961-2100. Hydrological results using DBS were compared to results with the widely-used delta change (DC) approach for impact studies. The general signal of a warmer and wetter climate was obtained using both approaches, but use of DBS identified differences between the two projections that were not seen with DC. The DBS approach is thought to better preserve the future variability produced by the RCM, improving usability for climate change impact studies.

Keywords
climate change, downscaling, hydrological impacts
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-592 (URN)10.2166/nh.2010.004 (DOI)000279499700005 ()
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-20 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Andersson, L., Wilk, J., Graham, P. & Warburton, M. (2009). Local Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Thukela River Basin, South Africa - Recommendations for Adaptation. SMHI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Local Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Thukela River Basin, South Africa - Recommendations for Adaptation
2009 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Denna rapport har sitt ursprung i projektet Deltagande modellering för bedömning av lokal inverkan av klimatvariabilitet och förändringar på vattenresurser (PAMO), finansierat av Sida och Research Links (NFR i Sydafrika, samt VR i Sverige). Projektet baseras på interaktion mellan vattenintressenter i Mhlwazini/Bergville området av Thukelas avrinningsområde och klimat och vattenforskare från University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) och SMHI under en serie av workshops under 2007-2009. Mellan workshops har forskarna tagit fram klimatförändringsrelaterad information med lokal relevans, baserat på önskemål från deltagarna i workshops. Denna information har sedan använts som ett underlag till framtagandet av en anpassningsplan. Syftet är att tillhandahålla en lokal bedömning av sårbarhet relaterad till påverkan på vattenresurser av klimatförändringar, samt en lokalt föreslagen anpassningsstrategi. Existerande klimatrelaterade problem och nuvarande anpassningsstrategier har identifierats och rekommendationer för framtida aktioner, baserade på sannolikhet för förändringar och kännbarheten av konsekvenserna om dessa förändringar inträffar.

Abstract [en]

This report originates from a project entitled Participatory Modelling for Assessment of Local Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources (PAMO), financed by the Swedish Development Agency and Research Links cooperation (NRF and the Swedish Research Council). The project is based on interactions between stakeholders in the Mhlwazini/Bergville area of the Thukela River basin, climate and water researchers from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) during a series of workshops held in 2007-2009. Between the workshops, the researcher’s compiled locally relevant climate change related information, based on requests from the workshop participants, as a basis for this adaptation plan. The aim is to provide a local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources and adaptation strategies. The assessment identifies existing climate-water related problems, current adaptation strategies and recommendations for future action based on likelihoods for change and the severity if such changes will occur.Denna rapport har sitt ursprung i projektet Deltagande modellering för bedömning av lokal inverkan av klimatvariabilitet och förändringar på vattenresurser (PAMO), finansierat av Sida och Research Links (NFR i Sydafrika, samt VR i Sverige). Projektet baseras på interaktion mellan vattenintressenter i Mhlwazini/Bergville området av Thukelas avrinningsområde och klimat och vattenforskare från University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) och SMHI under en serie av workshops under 2007-2009. Mellan workshops har forskarna tagit fram klimatförändringsrelaterad information med lokal relevans, baserat på önskemål från deltagarna i workshops. Denna information har sedan använts som ett underlag till framtagandet av en anpassningsplan. Syftet är att tillhandahålla en lokal bedömning av sårbarhet relaterad till påverkan på vattenresurser av klimatförändringar, samt en lokalt föreslagen anpassningsstrategi. Existerande klimatrelaterade problem och nuvarande anpassningsstrategier har identifierats och rekommendationer för framtida aktioner, baserade på sannolikhet för förändringar och kännbarheten av konsekvenserna om dessa förändringar inträffar.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI, 2009. p. 47
Series
Climatology, ISSN 1654-2258 ; 1
Keywords
Climate change, water resources, vulnerability, adaptation, participatory modelling
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2788 (URN)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Local ID)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Archive number)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (OAI)
Available from: 2009-09-23 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved
Graham, P., Olsson, J., Kjellström, E., Rosberg, J., Hellström, S.-S. & Berndtsson, R. (2009). Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium. Paper presented at 5th Study Conference on BALTEX, JUN 04-08, 2007, Kuressaare, ESTONIA. Boreal environment research, 14(1), 173-182
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium
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2009 (English)In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 14, no 1, p. 173-182Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of this study was to reconstruct river flow to the Baltic Sea using data from different periods during the past thousand years. A hydrological model coupled to simulations from climate models was used to estimate river flow. A "millennium" simulation of past climate from the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model provided climatological inputs. Results from this global model were downscaled with the RCA3 regional climate model over northern Europe. Temperature and precipitation from the downscaled simulation results were then used in the HBV hydrological model to simulate river flows to the Baltic Sea for the periods 1000-1199 and 1551-1929. These were compared with observations for the period 1921-2002. A general conclusion from this work is that although climate has varied during the past millennium, variability in annual river flow to the Baltic Sea does not appear more pronounced in recent years than during the previous millennium, or vice versa.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-633 (URN)000264429500017 ()
Conference
5th Study Conference on BALTEX, JUN 04-08, 2007, Kuressaare, ESTONIA
Available from: 2015-04-22 Created: 2015-04-21 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
Graham, P., Chen, D., Bøssing Christensen, O., Kjellström, E., Krysanova, V., Meier, M., . . . Ruosteenoja, K. (2008). Projections of Future Anthropogenic Climate Change. In: The BACC Author Team (Ed.), Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin: (pp. 133-219). Springer, Berlin
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Projections of Future Anthropogenic Climate Change
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2008 (English)In: Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin / [ed] The BACC Author Team, Springer, Berlin , 2008, p. 133-219Chapter in book (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, Berlin, 2008
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4661 (URN)10.1007/978-3-540-72786-6 (DOI)978-3-540-72785-9 (ISBN)978-3-540-72786-6 (ISBN)
Available from: 2018-05-16 Created: 2018-05-16 Last updated: 2018-05-16Bibliographically approved
Graham, P., Andreasson, J. & Carlsson, B. (2007). Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods - a case study on the Lule River basin. Climatic Change, 81, 293-307
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods - a case study on the Lule River basin
2007 (English)In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 293-307Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates how using different regional climate model (RCM) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern Europe using an offline hydrological model. Climate change scenarios from an ensemble of seven RCMs, two global climate models (GCMs), two global emissions scenarios and two RCMs of varying resolution were used. A total of 15 climate change simulations were included in studies on the Lule River basin in Northern Sweden. Two different approaches to transfer climate change from the RCMs to hydrological models were tested. A rudimentary estimate of change in laydropower potential on the Lule River due to climate change was also made. The results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. The two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-756 (URN)10.1007/s10584-006-9215-2 (DOI)000247529400017 ()
Available from: 2015-04-28 Created: 2015-04-22 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Graham, P., Hagemann, S., Jaun, S. & Beniston, M. (2007). On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Climatic Change, 81, 97-122
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models
2007 (English)In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, p. 97-122Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Although representation of hydrology is included in all regional climate models (RCMs), the utility of hydrological results from RCMs varies considerably from model to model. Studies to evaluate and compare the hydrological components of a suite of RCMs and their use in assessing hydrological impacts from future climate change were carried out over Europe. This included using different methods to transfer RCM runoff directly to river discharge and coupling different RCMs to offline hydrological models using different methods to transfer the climate change signal between models. The work focused on drainage areas to the Baltic Basin, the Botlinian Bay Basin and the Rhine Basin. A total of 20 anthropogenic climate change scenario simulations from 11 different RCMs were used. One conclusion is that choice of GCM (global climate model) has a larger impact on projected hydrological change than either selection of emissions scenario or RCM used for downscaling.

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Hydrology; Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-753 (URN)10.1007/s10584-006-9217-0 (DOI)000247529400006 ()
Available from: 2015-04-28 Created: 2015-04-22 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
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