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Nikulin, Grigory
Publications (10 of 99) Show all publications
Karypidou, M. C., Sobolowski, S. P., Sangelantoni, L., Nikulin, G. & Katragkou, E. (2023). The impact of lateral boundary forcing in the CORDEX-Africa ensemble oversouthern Africa. Geoscientific Model Development, 16(7), 1887-1908
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The impact of lateral boundary forcing in the CORDEX-Africa ensemble oversouthern Africa
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2023 (English)In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 16, no 7, p. 1887-1908Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6433 (URN)10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023 (DOI)000963708600001 ()
Available from: 2023-04-25 Created: 2023-04-25 Last updated: 2023-04-25Bibliographically approved
van Lipzig, N. P. M., Van de Walle, J., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Coppola, E., Demuzere, M., . . . Thiery, W. (2022). Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection-permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa). Climate Dynamics
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection-permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa)
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2022 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6360 (URN)10.1007/s00382-022-06541-5 (DOI)000878948800003 ()
Available from: 2022-11-22 Created: 2022-11-22 Last updated: 2022-11-22Bibliographically approved
Diez-Sierra, J., Iturbide, M., Gutierrez, J. M., Fernandez, J., Milovac, J., Cofino, A. S., . . . Onol, B. (2022). The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), 103(12), E2804-E2826
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas
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2022 (English)In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 103, no 12, p. E2804-E2826Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6404 (URN)10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0111.1 (DOI)000909959300011 ()
Available from: 2023-02-14 Created: 2023-02-14 Last updated: 2023-02-14Bibliographically approved
Coppola, E., Nogherotto, R., Ciarlo, J. M., Giorgi, F., van Meijgaard, E., Kadygrov, N., . . . Wulfmeyer, V. (2021). Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 126(4), Article ID e2019JD032356.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble
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2021 (English)In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 126, no 4, article id e2019JD032356Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6084 (URN)10.1029/2019JD032356 (DOI)000624348900002 ()
Available from: 2021-04-13 Created: 2021-04-13 Last updated: 2021-04-13Bibliographically approved
Zittis, G., Hadjinicolaou, P., Almazroui, M., Bucchignani, E., Driouech, F., El Rhaz, K., . . . Lelieveld, J. (2021). Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4(1), Article ID 20.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
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2021 (English)In: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, E-ISSN 2397-3722, Vol. 4, no 1, article id 20Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6076 (URN)10.1038/s41612-021-00178-7 (DOI)000632061000001 ()
Available from: 2021-03-30 Created: 2021-03-30 Last updated: 2021-03-31
Vautard, R., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Buelow, K., . . . Wulfmeyer, V. (2021). Evaluation of the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model Ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 126(17), Article ID e2019JD032344.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evaluation of the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model Ensemble
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2021 (English)In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 126, no 17, article id e2019JD032344Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6166 (URN)10.1029/2019JD032344 (DOI)000694671900022 ()
Available from: 2021-09-28 Created: 2021-09-28 Last updated: 2021-09-28Bibliographically approved
Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., Bucchignani, E., Cassano, J., Cavazos, T., Cescatti, A., . . . Dosio, A. (2021). Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study. International Journal of Climatology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study
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2021 (English)In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5 to 4 degrees C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (vs. 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 (fossil-fuelled development) at GWL 4 degrees C, approximately 2 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests and croplands (respectively, 6 and 11%) and 1.5 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI, this extent will rise to 17 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests (49%), 6 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (78%), and 12 center dot 10(6) km(2) of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.

National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Climate; Meteorology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6156 (URN)10.1002/joc.7302 (DOI)000681018300001 ()
Available from: 2021-08-31 Created: 2021-08-31 Last updated: 2021-08-31Bibliographically approved
Tamoffo, A. T., Nikulin, G., Vondou, D. A., Dosio, A., Nouayou, R., Wu, M. & Igri, P. M. (2021). Process-based assessment of the impact of reduced turbulent mixing on Congo Basin precipitation in the RCA4 Regional Climate Model. Climate Dynamics
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Process-based assessment of the impact of reduced turbulent mixing on Congo Basin precipitation in the RCA4 Regional Climate Model
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2021 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6051 (URN)10.1007/s00382-020-05571-1 (DOI)000605141600008 ()
Available from: 2021-01-26 Created: 2021-01-26 Last updated: 2021-01-26
Dosio, A., Pinto, I., Lennard, C., Sylla, M. B., Jack, C. & Nikulin, G. (2021). What Can We Know About Recent Past Precipitation Over Africa?: Daily Characteristics of African Precipitation From a Large Ensemble of Observational Products for Model Evaluation. Earth and Space Science, 8(10), Article ID e2020EA001466.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>What Can We Know About Recent Past Precipitation Over Africa?: Daily Characteristics of African Precipitation From a Large Ensemble of Observational Products for Model Evaluation
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2021 (English)In: Earth and Space Science, E-ISSN 2333-5084, Vol. 8, no 10, article id e2020EA001466Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6184 (URN)10.1029/2020EA001466 (DOI)000711969700012 ()
Available from: 2021-11-16 Created: 2021-11-16 Last updated: 2021-11-16Bibliographically approved
Dosio, A., Turner, A. G., Tamoffo, A. T., Sylla, M. B., Lennard, C., Jones, R. G., . . . Hewitson, B. (2020). A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6), Article ID 064007.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models
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2020 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 15, no 6, article id 064007Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5725 (URN)10.1088/1748-9326/ab7fde (DOI)000538485500001 ()
Available from: 2020-06-23 Created: 2020-06-23 Last updated: 2024-01-17Bibliographically approved
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